Thailand’s equity market in 2025 faces external headwinds and domestic tailwinds, highlighting trade war impacts, political uncertainty, and policy support. Focus is on resilient sectors like Commerce and Telecommunications.
Key Takeaways
- Thailand’s equity market in 2025 faces a rough draw due to the balancing act between external trade war threats and domestic policy support.
- Political uncertainty and challenging legal environment pose as potential overhangs on Thailand’s market outlook.
- Sector preferences for 2025 focus on resilient stocks benefiting from fiscal stimulus and internal factors, with overweight positions in Commerce, Telecommunications, Agriculture & Food, and Consumer Finance sectors.
The research paper by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities predicts a challenging year for Thailand’s equity market in 2025, with external headwinds such as the threat of a trade war and political uncertainty. However, there are positive factors such as policy support and potential for aggressive gestures from the Bank of Thailand. The paper recommends focusing on sectors and stocks with strong bottom-up catalysts, particularly in Commerce, Telecommunications, Agriculture & Food, and Consumer Finance sectors. Top stock recommendations for the first quarter of 2025 include CPF, GLOBAL, IVL, MINT, PR9, SCB, SPRC, and TRUE.
Economic Challenges and Opportunities in Thailand
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) predicts that Thailand’s equity market in 2025 will balance external challenges with domestic opportunities. A potential trade war poses a threat due to Thailand’s high export dependency, with possible global tariffs impacting the country adversely. The rise in low-cost Chinese goods exports could follow tariffs on China, while foreign direct investment may yield long-term gains, albeit from a low starting point. The 2018-19 trade war saw Thai GDP decline, and the SET index fell by 10%, highlighting the vulnerability Thailand faces.
Thailand’s Resilience and Sector Focus
Political uncertainty could negatively affect Thailand’s economic outlook, with pending petitions against coalition partners creating caution. Nevertheless, policy support, including expected rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand and moderate fiscal stimulus, offers protection.
Further support may expand the Vayupak market fund if necessary. Sector preferences include Commerce, Telecommunications, Agriculture & Food, and Consumer Finance, focusing on stocks with strong catalysts and resilience to slower Chinese growth.
