Thai Stock Market Outlook on 10 September 2025

The Thai stock market (SET Index) is trading sideways with a slight positive bias, following a three-day winning streak. The SET Index is hovering around the 1,276.08 points level, having gained 9.97 points (0.79%) on the previous day. The market’s performance is being influenced by a mix of domestic and international factors.

Key Factors Influencing the Market:

• Political Clarity and Government Policies: The market is reacting positively to the formation of a new government and expectations of economic stimulus measures.³ The appointment of the new prime minister, Anutin, and the anticipation of the new cabinet lineup (particularly for economic ministries) are key drivers of investor sentiment.⁴ Analysts believe that renewed political stability could lead to a more positive response from both the economy and the stock market for the rest of the year.⁵
• Monetary Policy & Inflation: Investors are closely watching U.S. inflation data to gauge the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.⁶ A potential Fed rate cut could lead to foreign fund inflows returning to the Thai market, supporting the SET Index.⁷
• Domestic Economic Concerns: Despite the positive political developments, some sources indicate a high level of economic pessimism among Thai consumers, with a significant percentage expecting conditions to worsen.⁸ This is linked to factors such as high household and private debt, and a slowing labor market.
• Ex-Dividend Dates: The market may face some short-term pressure due to the ex-dividend date on several banking stocks.⁹

Market Outlook and Projections:

• Short-Term (September 10, 2025): The market is expected to trade sideways, with a support level at 1,260 and a resistance level at 1,285 points.¹⁰
• Mid-Term (September 2025): Analysts project the SET Index could test the 1,300-point level, supported by political stability and potential foreign fund inflows from Fed rate cuts.¹¹ However, the market’s upside might be limited by a minority government that could face challenges in implementing large-scale stimulus measures.¹²

Sectors and Stocks to Watch:

• Domestic-Growth Related Stocks: With a focus on government stimulus, stocks related to domestic consumption and the “grassroots economy” are expected to benefit.¹³ This includes:
  • Finance: MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR¹⁴
  • Retail: CPALL, GLOBAL
  • Property: SPALI
  • Tourism: Hotel operators like CENTEL¹⁵
• Other Noteworthy Sectors:
  • Power Producers: BGRIM, GULF, are considered resilient to political changes.¹⁶
  • Transport and Construction: Companies involved in transport and construction projects could see gains from infrastructure investment.

Summary:

The Thai stock market is in a cautiously optimistic mood. While domestic political clarity and the hope for economic stimulus measures provide a positive lift, investors remain vigilant about global economic signals, particularly from the U.S. Fed. The market’s direction for the remainder of the month will likely depend on the details of the new government’s policies and the timing and extent of U.S. interest rate changes.

While some analysts remain optimistic about Thailand’s long-term prospects, citing government stimulus measures and a potential rebound in tourism, others warn of prolonged strain. The baht also weakened against the dollar, raising concerns about imported inflation. Critics argue that policymakers must address structural issues, such as high household debt, to restore confidence.

Looking ahead, market participants will monitor upcoming economic data releases and central bank signals for direction. With global uncertainties persisting, volatility in the Thai stock market is likely to continue in the near term.

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Kasikorn Research Center, SET Market Data