Thailand’s economy closed 2025 on a surprisingly strong note, with GDP expanding 2.5% year-on-year in Q4, well above forecasts of 1.3% and outpacing the previous quarter’s 1.2%. On a quarterly basis, growth reached 1.9%, nearly triple the expected pace.
Key Takeaways
- Q4 2025 GDP: Expanded 2.5% year-on-year, stronger than forecasts and above Q3’s 1.2%.
- Quarterly Growth: Rose 1.9% from Q3, exceeding the highest Bloomberg survey estimate of 1.9%.
- Full-Year 2025: Economy grew 2.4% overall.
- 2026 Outlook: The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) upgraded projections, expecting growth between 1.5%–2.5%, driven by exports and tourism recovery.
For the full year, GDP rose 2.4%, driven by a rebound in exports, a surge in tourism arrivals, and targeted government stimulus measures. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has now set its 2026 growth outlook at 1.5%–2.5%, citing continued recovery in external demand and tourism as key drivers.
The stronger-than-expected performance comes at a pivotal moment for Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who recently secured a coalition deal. The economic momentum provides his administration with political capital as it pledges to stabilize the economy and ease cost-of-living pressures.
Despite the upbeat figures, Thailand’s growth remains modest compared to regional peers. Malaysia and Singapore grew at more than double Thailand’s pace in 2025, while Vietnam expanded nearly four times faster, underscoring the competitiveness challenges ahead.
