Thailand’s Economy Softens in February 2026 – Bank of Thailand Report

In February, Thailand’s economy softened, with declines in exports, tourism, and private consumption, despite growth in private investment and government spending. Headline inflation decreased, while core inflation remained stable. Key issues include geopolitical events and energy policy impacts.

Key Points

• Exports declined in key categories (petroleum, gems & jewelry) following a temporary surge in the prior month, while tourism receipts fell due to fewer long-haul arrivals, including reduced visitors from the Middle East and Malaysia partly due to Ramadan.
• Private consumption softened, driven by lower durable goods spending after consumers front-loaded electric vehicle purchases ahead of the EV 3.0 scheme expiry.
• Manufacturing output decreased, notably in petroleum (scheduled refinery maintenance) and electrical appliances (high competition), dragging down related services such as trade, hotels, and restaurants.
• Private investment continued to grow, supported by machinery and equipment spending, and government spending expanded in both current and capital expenditures.
• Headline inflation turned more negative due to lower fresh food prices; core inflation remained positive and broadly stable.
• The current account recorded a surplus, driven mainly by a trade surplus.

Key risks to monitor: Middle East conflict developments, household and business adaptability to higher energy prices, and shifts in U.S. trade policy.

Why It Matters: The report signals a cooling Thai economy in early 2026, with temporary factors unwinding and external uncertainties — particularly U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions — posing ongoing risks to the outlook.

Summary

• The Thai economy in February softened from the previous month, with activity moderating on both the demand and supply sides.
  • On the demand side, merchandise exports excluding gold declined in some categories following a strong expansion in the previous month, partly due to the unwinding of temporary factors. Tourism receipts also declined in line with lower foreign tourist arrivals. Private consumption also softened, after earlier front-loaded purchases of electric vehicles ahead of the expiry of the EV 3.0 scheme. However, private investment continued to grow. Government spending also expanded, driven by increases in both current and capital expenditures of the central government.
  • On the supply side, overall activity moderated, reflecting declines in both services and manufacturing production.
• Headline inflation turned more negative, mainly due to lower food prices, while core inflation remained positive and broadly stable compared to the previous month.
• Key issues to monitor: (1) developments in the Middle East conflict, (2) the adaptability of businesses and households, including government measures related to higher energy prices, and (3) changes in U.S. trade policy.

Source : https://www.bot.or.th/en/news-and-media/news/news-20260331.html