Maybank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.8% (2026) and 7.9% (2027), leading ASEAN. Growth driven by AI-related exports, foreign investment, and infrastructure spending. Maybank maintains VN-Index target of 2,000, citing FTSE upgrade, strong EPS growth, and resilient fundamentals despite global uncertainties, per Invest ASEAN 2026 findings.
Key Points
- Maybank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.8% (2026) and 7.9% (2027), making it ASEAN’s fastest-growing economy, driven by electronics exports, FDI, and infrastructure spending.
- Maybank keeps its VN-Index target at 2,000, expecting 13–16% EPS growth in 2026, supported by the FTSE emerging market upgrade and strong sector performance in banking, retail, and energy.
- Other forecasts vary: AMRO cut 2026 GDP to 7.2%, OECD projects 6.5%, while UOB notes resilience despite rising energy costs and external pressures.
Vietnam’s Growth Outlook
Maybank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.8% in 2026 and 7.9% in 2027, positioning it as ASEAN’s fastest-growing major economy. This resilience persists despite global uncertainties.
Growth will be driven by AI-related electronics exports, strong foreign investment inflows, and continued infrastructure spending. The second half of 2026 outlook remains favorable, supported by higher-quality overseas funding, supply chain diversification, major infrastructure projects, and supportive fiscal and monetary policies—reinforcing Vietnam’s structural growth momentum amid a challenging global backdrop.
Earnings and Equity Market Outlook
Second-quarter market earnings are expected to slightly exceed expectations, with banks, retail, and energy sectors outperforming due to lower provisions, stronger electronics prices, and elevated oil prices. Real estate, steel, and air logistics should align with forecasts, while fertilisers and chemicals may underperform due to falling urea prices.
Maybank remains bullish on Vietnamese equities, maintaining a VN-Index target of 2,000, supported by 13–16% EPS growth in 2026. The upcoming FTSE emerging market upgrade in September is seen as a key catalyst, favoring infrastructure, energy, and financial sectors.
Investor Engagement and Comparative Forecasts
The findings were unveiled at Invest ASEAN 2026, hosted by Maybank in Singapore, drawing 200 institutional investors managing $23 trillion in assets. Vietnam had the largest representation, with 14 companies spanning banking, tech, consumer, healthcare, and renewable energy sectors—highlighting strong investor interest in the country’s growth story. Maybank Investment Bank Vietnam’s CEO, Kim Thien Quang, emphasized Vietnam’s resilient economic appeal amid global complexity.
In contrast, other institutions offer more conservative estimates: AMRO revised its 2026 forecast down to 7.2%, the OECD projects 6.5% growth, and UOB notes resilience despite cost pressures from rising energy prices and external headwinds—suggesting cautious optimism across forecasts while affirming Vietnam’s continued economic strength.
Source : Strong fundamentals to keep Vietnam at the top of ASEAN growth rankings
