The Asian Development Bank projects inflation across developing Asia-Pacific economies will stay above 2025 levels through 2027, driven by geopolitical conflicts, higher energy costs, and extreme weather. The September Asian Development Outlook update slightly lowered the 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2% while raising the 2027 projection to 3.5%. Conflicts affecting oil markets and an expected severe El Niño event threaten to raise transport, food, and electricity costs, though government subsidies are helping moderate near-term price pressures at fiscal cost.
Thailand faces particular vulnerability, with growth forecasts adjusted to 2% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027. The combination of persistent inflation and modest growth limits policy options, as expanded household support increases fiscal strain while loose monetary policy risks worsening high household debt. Regional growth overall will moderate to 5% in 2026 before rising to 5.1% in 2027, though this does not guarantee protection for consumers facing rising essential goods prices.
Inflation across Asia could remain above last year’s levels through 2027 as geopolitical conflicts, higher energy costs and extreme weather combine to keep pressure on food, transport and electricity prices, according to the Asian Development Bank.
In its September update of the Asian Development Outlook, the ADB slightly reduced its inflation forecast for developing economies in Asia-Pacific for 2026 to 4.2%, from 4.3% previously. However, it raised its 2027 projection to 3.5%, from 3.4%.
Although the 2026 revision appears limited, the figures confirm that price pressures are unlikely to disappear quickly. Both forecasts remain above the 3% recorded in 2025, pointing to a more persistent inflationary period for households, businesses and central banks.
The report attributed part of the pressure to conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. Disruptions in oil and refined fuel markets threaten to raise transport, manufacturing and electricity-generation costs in economies that depend on imported energy.
Weather conditions add a second risk. The ADB expects a severe El Niño event, with possible consequences for harvests from India to Thailand. Lower agricultural output could push food prices higher, while reduced hydropower generation could increase dependence on fossil fuels, according to Bloomberg.
Governments are using broad subsidies to contain the impact of higher energy prices. These measures have helped moderate the 2026 inflation forecast, but they also carry a considerable fiscal cost. Relief for consumers could become a longer-term burden on public finances if international prices remain elevated.
Thailand’s recovery remains fragile
Thailand is not insulated from this environment. Higher fuel prices affect transport, distribution and production, while extreme weather can damage agriculture and electricity generation.
The ADB slightly raised its growth forecast for Thailand in 2026 to 2%, from 1.8%, supported by technology exports and regional demand. For 2027, however, it lowered its projection to 1.9%, from 2%.
The combination of persistent inflation and moderate growth leaves Bangkok with limited room for manoeuvre. Authorities can expand support for households, but additional spending could increase fiscal pressure. They can also maintain an accommodative monetary policy, although excessively loose financial conditions could intensify risks in a country with high household debt.
Regional growth will remain resilient, according to the ADB. Growth across developing Asia will moderate from 5.5% in 2025 to 5% in 2026 before edging up to 5.1% in 2027. But a growing economy does not necessarily protect consumers when the prices of essential goods rise faster than incomes, as their analysis report.
For Thailand, the outlook for the coming months will depend on how long the energy shocks last and whether El Niño significantly affects harvests. If both pressures intensify at the same time, the government will have to decide which costs to absorb, which to pass on to consumers and how long it can finance broad-based support.
Asian inflation is not out of control, but it has not disappeared either. In 2027, households will continue to measure the recovery not through regional forecasts, but by the cost of filling the tank, buying food and keeping a business open.
