The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) maintains 2024-25 growth forecasts at 4.4% and 4.3%. Growth driven by exports, domestic demand, tourism recovery, despite U.S. risks and geopolitical tensions.
Key Takeaways
- The ASEAN+3 region’s growth forecast for 2024-25 remains at 4.4 percent and 4.3 percent, supported by favorable export prospects, robust domestic demand, and a recovering tourism sector.
- Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region is expected to moderate to 2.1 percent in 2024, with downside risks related to geopolitical tensions and U.S.-related factors.
- The outcome of the U.S. elections could significantly impact the region’s outlook for 2025, emphasizing the need for policy measures to enhance resilience to potential shocks.
AMRO Maintains 2024-25 Growth Projections
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has sustained its 2024–25 growth forecasts for the ASEAN+3 region at 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively. The latest quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) suggests favorable export prospects will amplify the region’s growth momentum. Additionally, strong domestic demand and a robust recovery in tourism are expected to play pivotal roles in sustaining economic growth.
Real estate aside, China’s economy continues to grow robustly. Tourism has rebounded close to pre-pandemic levels for most economies in the region, and the global semiconductor recovery is broadening to benefit more economies and sectors in ASEAN+3.
AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor
Steady Growth and Positive Outlook for 2024
In 2024, the ASEAN+3 region anticipates steady growth at a rate of 4.4%, slightly below the 4.5% forecasted in April. Factors such as strong employment conditions, stable prices, and improving global demand are expected to bolster domestic demand and export growth. Specifically, ASEAN is projected to see an increase from 4.2% in 2023 to 4.8%, while growth for China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea is expected to stabilize at 4.4%. Predictions indicate a slight easing to 4.3% growth in 2025 as economies merge towards their trend growth rates.
Risks and Policy Recommendations
AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor highlighted that risks to the region’s outlook have lessened since April. China’s economy remains robust, tourism approaches pre-pandemic levels, and the global semiconductor recovery benefits multiple ASEAN+3 economies. However, inflation, excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar, is expected to moderate to 2.1% in 2024. Despite positive signs, geopolitical tensions and U.S. interest rate policies could pose risks. Khor emphasized the need for regional economies to rebuild policy space and bolster resilience against potential shocks from the upcoming U.S. elections.
Source: ASEAN+3 Growth Momentum Steady on Export Recovery, Solid Domestic Demand
