# ASEAN+3 growth forecast for 2024-25 remains at 4.4 % and 4.3 % (AMRO)

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/152500-asean3-growth-forecast-for-2024-25-remains-at-4-4-and-4-3-amro
- Published: 2024-07-22T10:04:43+07:00
- Author: News Desk

**The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) maintains 2024-25 growth forecasts
at 4.4% and 4.3%. Growth driven by exports, domestic demand, tourism recovery, despite
U.S. risks and geopolitical tensions.**

## Key Takeaways

 * The ASEAN+3 region’s growth forecast for 2024-25 remains at 4.4 percent and 4.3
   percent, supported by favorable export prospects, robust domestic demand, and
   a recovering tourism sector.
 * Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region is expected to moderate to 2.1 percent in 2024,
   with downside risks related to geopolitical tensions and U.S.-related factors.
 * The outcome of the U.S. elections could significantly impact the region’s outlook
   for 2025, emphasizing the need for policy measures to enhance resilience to potential
   shocks.

## AMRO Maintains 2024-25 Growth Projections

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has sustained its 2024–25 growth
forecasts for the ASEAN+3 region at 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively. The latest quarterly
update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) suggests favorable export
prospects will amplify the region’s growth momentum. Additionally, strong domestic
demand and a robust recovery in tourism are expected to play pivotal roles in sustaining
economic growth.

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> _Real estate aside, China’s economy continues to grow robustly._ _Tourism has 
> rebounded close to pre-pandemic levels for most economies in the region, and the
> global semiconductor recovery is broadening to benefit more economies and sectors
> in ASEAN+3._
> _AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor_

## Steady Growth and Positive Outlook for 2024

In 2024, the ASEAN+3 region anticipates steady growth at a rate of 4.4%, slightly
below the 4.5% forecasted in April. Factors such as strong employment conditions,
stable prices, and improving global demand are expected to bolster domestic demand
and export growth. Specifically, ASEAN is projected to see an increase from 4.2%
in 2023 to 4.8%, while growth for China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea is expected
to stabilize at 4.4%. Predictions indicate a slight easing to 4.3% growth in 2025
as economies merge towards their trend growth rates.

## Risks and Policy Recommendations

AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor highlighted that risks to the region’s outlook 
have lessened since April. China’s economy remains robust, tourism approaches pre-
pandemic levels, and the global semiconductor recovery benefits multiple ASEAN+3
economies. However, inflation, excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar, is expected to moderate
to 2.1% in 2024. Despite positive signs, geopolitical tensions and U.S. interest
rate policies could pose risks. Khor emphasized the need for regional economies 
to rebuild policy space and bolster resilience against potential shocks from the
upcoming U.S. elections.

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Source: [ASEAN+3 Growth Momentum Steady on Export Recovery, Solid Domestic Demand ](https://amro-asia.org/asean3-growth-momentum-steady-on-export-recovery-solid-domestic-demand)