# ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026: Growth Amid Energy Shock Risks

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/299123-asean3-regional-economic-outlook-2026-growth-amid-energy-shock-risks
- Published: 2026-04-10T03:11:00+07:00
- Author: Aishwarya Gupta

AMRO’s flagship AREO 2026 report projects steady regional growth for ASEAN+3 while
warning that the Middle East conflict has significantly increased downside risks
through energy supply disruptions.

**Key Details:**

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 * Regional growth is forecast at **4.0% in both 2026 and 2027**, following stronger-
   than-expected expansion of **4.3% in 2025**.
 * The Middle East conflict has raised energy prices, pushing headline inflation
   from **0.9% in 2025** to a projected **1.4–1.5% in 2026–2027**.
 * The region is considered better positioned than in previous energy shocks due
   to improved energy efficiency, lower oil dependency, and available policy space.
 * A prolonged conflict could spread disruptions beyond energy markets to **industrial
   inputs, logistics, food prices, tourism, and remittances**.
 * Structurally, ASEAN+3 has shifted toward intraregional demand — now accounting
   for **28% of global final demand** — with US-bound value-added exports falling
   from ~one-third to **20%**.
 * Policymakers are urged to maintain financial stability, act decisively against
   sustained inflation, and provide **targeted fiscal support** without fuelling
   inflation.

**Why It Matters:**
ASEAN+3’s growing regional integration and economic resilience
provide a strong foundation, but sustained policy vigilance and deeper regional 
cooperation will be critical to navigating ongoing global shocks.

## **Chapter 1: Macroeconomic Prospects and Challenges**

ASEAN+3 delivered a stronger-than-expected performance in 2025 despite the most 
significant shift in global trade policy in decades. Economic activity remained 
well-supported by firm domestic demand, robust export performance, continued investment,
and strengthening intraregional linkages.

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**Near-term risks (Chapter 1):**

 * Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and energy supply disruptions (especially
   via the Strait of Hormuz).
 * Shifting U.S. trade policies and volatile technology demand.
 * Financial market volatility adding downside pressure.
 * Policymakers’ central challenge: **preserving policy flexibility**.

Looking ahead, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside, with uncertainty 
remaining elevated. Trade policy shifts and technology demand have each become sources
of two-sided risk. The conflict in the Middle East and the disruption to energy 
supply through the Strait of Hormuz pose a significant near-term risk to both growth
and inflation, while financial market volatility adds further downside pressure.

The region nonetheless enters 2026 from a position of relative strength. Growth 
outperformed expectations in 2025, inflation remained low, and most economies retain
meaningful fiscal and monetary space. Preserving policy flexibility remains the 
central near-term challenge for policymakers across the region.

Source : [ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026 – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office – AMRO ASIA](https://amro-asia.org/asean3-regional-economic-outlook-2026/)