# ASEAN’s Neutrality Is Failing the South China Sea Test

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/317730-aseans-neutrality-is-failing-the-south-china-sea-test
- Published: 2026-08-04T11:15:44+07:00
- Author: Jessica Lee

* ASEAN’s traditional non-aligned approach, which has preserved regional peace 
   for decades, faces mounting strain as China’s sustained pressure in the South
   China Sea exposes the limits of consensus-based diplomacy. Two decades of negotiations
   over a legally binding Code of Conduct have produced no agreement, illustrating
   how neutrality can enable gradual territorial encroachment rather than prevent
   it.
 * The bloc’s structural reliance on consensus allows members with close ties to
   China to block unified responses, creating an institution capable of swift diplomacy
   with Russia yet unable to defend its own waters in binding terms. Genuine regional
   security may require ASEAN to move beyond diplomatic silence and assert firmer
   positions when sovereignty is directly threatened.

ASEAN faces its toughest test balancing neutrality amid global disorder, particularly
in the South China Sea. While its consensus-based diplomacy has maintained regional
peace, China’s territorial pressure exposes critical weaknesses. Staying friendly
with everyone fails when one party quietly encroaches, making silence increasingly
insufficient.

## Key Points

 * ASEAN, chaired by the Philippines this year, faces mounting global pressures,
   balancing trade, energy, and food security while maintaining friendly ties with
   all major powers, including Russia and China, through its traditional non-aligned“
   ASEAN way” approach.
 * The South China Sea remains ASEAN’s greatest challenge, where two decades of 
   negotiations with China over a legally binding Code of Conduct have stalled, 
   exposing how consensus-based decision-making becomes a weakness when members 
   have conflicting ties.
 * While ASEAN’s neutrality has successfully prevented interstate war, its reluctance
   to confront assertive actors like China risks enabling gradual territorial encroachment,
   suggesting the bloc must find courage to move beyond diplomatic silence when 
   regional sovereignty is genuinely threatened.

### ASEAN’s Balancing Act in a Divided World

**A Tested Approach | Strengths of Neutrality**

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In 2025, the Philippines chairs ASEAN during one of its most demanding periods, 
as global disorder strains a region deeply dependent on trade and stability. From
crisis management at the Cebu summit to maintaining friendly ties with Russia despite
Western pressure, ASEAN demonstrates its defining characteristic: **refusing to 
choose sides**. This strategic neutrality has historically served the region well.
By keeping ties open with all major powers, ASEAN secures energy, food, and security
through multiple relationships rather than dependence on a single hegemon. Decades
without interstate war stand as evidence that this approach delivers results.

---

### When Neutrality Becomes a Liability

**The South China Sea Challenge | Institutional Limitations**

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However, **ASEAN’s greatest strength becomes its most dangerous weakness** when 
one party at the table is not merely talking but actively taking. Nowhere is this
clearer than in the South China Sea. After over twenty years of negotiations, ASEAN
and China have yet to agree on whether a Code of Conduct would even be legally binding.
The Philippines, the most directly pressured member, exemplifies this dilemma — 
President Marcos Jr. advocates for binding rules yet expresses little confidence
in achieving them. **Staying neutral toward a party applying sustained pressure 
ultimately allows that pressure to continue unchallenged.**

---

### The Courage ASEAN Must Find

**Consensus as Constraint | A Call for Decisive Action**

ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making, while ensuring inclusivity, **creates a
structural paralysis precisely when firmness is most needed**. Members with close
ties to China effectively prevent any unified, assertive response to territorial
encroachments. The result is a body capable of reaching agreements with Russia within
days yet unable to produce a single binding sentence defending its own waters in
years. China’s gradual territorial gains — never large enough to trigger war, yet
sufficient to redraw boundaries — expose this vulnerability. Genuine regional security
ultimately requires not just skillful diplomacy, but **the institutional courage
to firmly reject actions that threaten the foundations of the regional order itself.**

**Source** : [ASEAN has to stand up to Beijing’s ambitions – Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2026/06/30/2003859957)