# SCB EIC Forecasts Varied Risks for CLMV Economies Amid Global Trade Pressures

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/cambodia/237455-scb-eic-forecasts-varied-risks-for-clmv-economies-amid-global-trade-pressures
- Published: 2025-08-11T21:04:09+07:00
- Author: Economic Intelligence Center Siam Commercial Bank

**SCB EIC forecasts CLMV economic growth to decelerate to 5.1% in 2025, impacted
by global trade risks, elevated U.S. tariffs, political instability, and competition
from China’s low-cost imports. Vietnam is expected to drive growth, while Myanmar
faces economic contraction amid ongoing regional tensions.**

## Growth Slowdown and Trade Risks

SCB EIC forecasts a deceleration in CLMV economies to 5.1% growth in 2025, down 
from 6.3% in 2024, driven by slowing global trade and economic activity. Elevated
U.S. tariffs under a potential Trump 2.0 policy threaten export-driven CLMV nations,
especially Vietnam and Cambodia, which depend heavily on the U.S. market. In addition,
cheap Chinese imports undermine local competitiveness. Political instability in 
Myanmar, border tensions in Cambodia, and Laos’ debt vulnerabilities add to the 
risks, dampening investor confidence and consumption.

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## Country-Specific Challenges and Opportunities

Vietnam emerges as the strongest performer due to production shifts towards ASEAN,
improved supply chains, and supportive reforms. Cambodia’s moderate growth faces
headwinds from tariffs and border tensions, though tourism and exports provide some
relief. Lao PDR struggles with external debt and financial sector weaknesses, while
Myanmar’s economy contracts amid political turmoil and natural disasters, restricting
recovery prospects.

## Impact on Regional Trade and Investment

Trade and investment between Thailand and CLMV are softening amid weaker demand,
ongoing border conflicts, and greater global trade uncertainty. Although Thailand’s
investments diversify across sectors, political instability and regional tensions
may curb future flows. The Thailand-Cambodia conflict risks prolonging border closures,
hurting trade and investment sentiment, but Thai labor markets may adapt due to 
alternative workforce sources.

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