Connect with us

Philippines

Philippines: towards a period of economic introspection?

The Philippines may be heading towards a period of economic introspection, looking inward for growth and stability as the shadow of slower economic growth appears to be spreading over many of its key trading partners. The country’s inner strength was tested late in 2011, however, by natural disaster and other domestic concerns.

Avatar

Published

on

World Bank and other agencies say that the Philippines’ GDP could expand by up to 4.2% in 2012

The Philippines may be heading towards a period of economic introspection, according to Oxford Business Group latest update. Phillipines may be looking inward for growth and stability as the shadow of slower economic growth appears to be spreading over many of its key trading partners. The country’s inner strength was tested late in 2011, however, by natural disaster and other domestic concerns.

Loading...

As the year closed, the Philippines was still calculating the costs of Sendong, the devastating tropical storm that swept through Mindanao Island and other areas in mid-December, leaving well over 1000 dead, hundreds missing and damaging much of the key infrastructure in the region.

According to some estimates, more than 25,000 homes were lost as a result of the storm, and some 266,000 people displaced.

The cost of clean-up and repairs has yet to be completely calculated, though it will surely be immense, as will the losses to the economy. Official figures put the losses from the farming sector alone at $187m, which in turn could cut agriculture exports by some 5-10%, while also reducing domestic demand and trade well into 2012.

World Bank and other agencies say that the Philippines’ GDP could expand by up to 4.2% in 2012

World Bank and other agencies say that the Philippines’ GDP could expand by up to 4.2% in 2012

The damage to Mindanao’s agricultural sector hit rice and grain production especially hard, with the losses likely to require increases in imports to make up the shortfall. Even before the economic impact of Sendong was determined, there were warnings being issued that the Philippines could see a slowdown in growth in 2012.

On December 20 the World Bank issued its latest update on the Philippines, saying that if much of the global economy slipped back into recession, Manila would have to contend with a sharp fall in GDP growth.

The international lender said that growth could be limited to around 1% in 2012 if there was a downturn in the global economy. However, the World Bank said the effects of a widespread recession, which would result in a contraction in private and external demand, could be mitigated by fiscal stimulation from the government.

World Bank and other agencies say that the Philippines’ GDP could expand by up to 4.2% in 2012

Of course, this is a worst-case scenario, and the World Bank and other agencies say that the Philippines’ GDP could expand by up to 4.2% in 2012. This will be dependant on a number of factors, including whether the country’s export markets hold up. If the end of 2011 is any indication, the export markets could continue to slip to some degree, with exports falling 14.6% year-on-year in October, the sixth month in a row that overseas shipments had declined, according to data issued by the National Statistics Office in mid-December.

Overall, from January to October, exports were down by 4.3% compared to the same period in 2010, a trend that was expected to continue through the last two months of 2011 and into 2012 as demand in some of the Philippines’ major markets is likely to remain weak for some time. With exports representing about 40% of GDP, any significant and prolonged downturn will come as a blow to the economy.

Another reason cited by the IMF for the slowing rate of growth was government under-spending on a number of major projects in 2011. However, although this shortfall in outlays may have slowed expansion in the past year, the unspent funds will give the government additional flexibility in 2012 while not adding to the public debt burden, the IMF wrote in a statement issued in mid-December.

Read More

Oxford Business Group (OBG) is a global publishing and consultancy company which produces original economic and business intelligence on markets in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and the Caribbean.

Asean

4 Reasons to explore the Consumer Market Opportunities in The Philippines

An archipelago state which is home to more than 100 million people, the Philippines is gradually transforming into a burgeoning modern consumer market

Avatar

Published

on

Amongst the world’s growth markets, the ASEAN trade bloc is a particularly notable success story. It significantly out-performs many developed territories as well as those which are still developing. (more…)

Loading...

Continue Reading

Philippines

Duterte Harry, the life and crimes of an elected Philippine president

‘Duterte Harry’ is the first published biography of the Philippine president, and tells of his lifelong addiction to killing. It is a chilling account of what can happen when unbridled populism goes unchecked.

Bahar Karaman

Published

on

The campaign pledge of Rodrigo Duterte, the populist president of the Philippines, was mass murder, pure and simple – and, unlike most politicians, he faithfully delivered on his promise. (more…)

Loading...

Continue Reading

Asean

Does Philippine Licensing Problems Offer an Opportunity to Thailand?

This regulatory regime has produced significant income for the country and continues to play a vital role in the Philippines economy.

Avatar

Published

on

Philippines has for a number of years found itself in the unique position of being the only country in Asia that licenses online gambling sites, done under the auspices of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR), which also runs land-based casinos in the country, along with VIP slots clubs and bingo parlours. (more…)

Loading...

Continue Reading

Most Viewed

Subscribe via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 14,072 other subscribers

Latest

Trending