In Q4 2024, real GDP grew by 7.6% y-o-y, driven by electronics exports and investment. Overall, GDP rose by 7.1% in 2024, boosted by favorable policies and US demand.
Key View
- Real GDP increased by 7.6% y-o-y in Q4 2024, accelerating from 7.4% in Q3, driven by stronger electronics exports and investment. GDP grew by 7.1% in 2024, compared with 5.0% in 2023.
- We now expect GDP to expand by 7.4% in 2025, up from 7.2% previously, due to favourable monetary and fiscal policies and a relatively robust US economy.
- The risks are mixed. On the upside, policymakers could increase capital spending to hit their ambitious 8% growth target. On the downside, the US could increase tariffs on Vietnamese goods.
Real GDP increased by 7.6% y-o-y in Q4 2024, accelerating from 7.1% in Q3, driven by stronger electronics exports and investment (BMI Forecast: 7.5%, market forecasts 6.7%). Thanks largely to robust US electronics demand, exports increased by 11.4% y-o-y in Q4. Also, investment increased by 8.0% y-o-y in Q4 up from 7.1% in Q3, following the government’s push to speed up public capital spending in Q4.Throughout 2024, GDP increased by 7.1%, significantly up from 5.0% in 2023 and well above the official target of 6.5%.
Vietnam has emerged as one of Southeast Asia’s most dynamic economies, showcasing robust growth momentum that is set to continue. The nation has benefited from an advantageous location, strategic trade agreements, and a youthful workforce, creating an environment ripe for investment and development. With the government emphasizing economic reforms and high-tech industries, the country is positioning itself as a competitive alternative to China in global supply chains.
In recent years, Vietnam’s GDP growth has consistently outpaced regional averages, bolstered by a burgeoning manufacturing sector and increasing foreign direct investment (FDI). The country’s efforts to attract multinational corporations have paid off, as companies seek to diversify their production bases amidst global uncertainties. This trend is expected to gain further traction, driven by ongoing infrastructure improvements and enhanced connectivity.
Looking ahead, Vietnam’s outlook remains positive, fueled by a growing middle class and rising domestic consumption. As the economy continues to diversify and innovate, Vietnam stands poised to sustain its growth trajectory, solidifying its status as a key player in the global market.
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