# Robust Economic Foundations to Sustain Vietnam’s Lead in ASEAN Growth Rankings

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/vietnam/319082-robust-economic-foundations-to-sustain-vietnams-lead-in-asean-growth-rankings
- Published: 2026-09-22T05:10:00+07:00
- Author: Nguyen Trang

Maybank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.8% (2026) and 7.9% (2027), leading ASEAN.
Growth driven by AI-related exports, foreign investment, and infrastructure spending.
Maybank maintains VN-Index target of 2,000, citing FTSE upgrade, strong EPS growth,
and resilient fundamentals despite global uncertainties, per Invest ASEAN 2026 findings.

## Key Points

 * Maybank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.8% (2026) and 7.9% (2027), making
   it ASEAN’s fastest-growing economy, driven by electronics exports, FDI, and infrastructure
   spending.
 * Maybank keeps its VN-Index target at 2,000, expecting 13–16% EPS growth in 2026,
   supported by the FTSE emerging market upgrade and strong sector performance in
   banking, retail, and energy.
 * Other forecasts vary: AMRO cut 2026 GDP to 7.2%, OECD projects 6.5%, while UOB
   notes resilience despite rising energy costs and external pressures.

### Vietnam’s Growth Outlook

Maybank forecasts **Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.8% in 2026 and 7.9% in 2027**, positioning
it as **ASEAN’s fastest-growing major economy**. This resilience persists despite
global uncertainties.

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Growth will be driven by **AI-related electronics exports, strong foreign investment
inflows, and continued infrastructure spending**. The second half of 2026 outlook
remains favorable, supported by **higher-quality overseas funding, supply chain 
diversification, major infrastructure projects, and supportive fiscal and monetary
policies**—reinforcing Vietnam’s structural growth momentum amid a challenging global
backdrop.

### Earnings and Equity Market Outlook

Second-quarter market earnings are expected to slightly **exceed expectations**,
with **banks, retail, and energy sectors outperforming** due to lower provisions,
stronger electronics prices, and elevated oil prices. Real estate, steel, and air
logistics should align with forecasts, while **fertilisers and chemicals may underperform**
due to falling urea prices.

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Maybank remains **bullish on Vietnamese equities**, maintaining a **VN-Index target
of 2,000**, supported by **13–16% EPS growth in 2026**. The upcoming **FTSE emerging
market upgrade in September** is seen as a key catalyst, favoring infrastructure,
energy, and financial sectors.

### Investor Engagement and Comparative Forecasts

The findings were unveiled at **Invest ASEAN 2026**, hosted by Maybank in Singapore,
drawing **200 institutional investors managing $23 trillion in assets**. Vietnam
had the **largest representation**, with **14 companies** spanning banking, tech,
consumer, healthcare, and renewable energy sectors—highlighting strong investor 
interest in the country’s growth story. Maybank Investment Bank Vietnam’s CEO, **
Kim Thien Quang**, emphasized Vietnam’s **resilient economic appeal** amid global
complexity.

In contrast, other institutions offer more conservative estimates: **AMRO revised
its 2026 forecast down to 7.2%**, the **OECD projects 6.5% growth**, and **UOB notes
resilience despite cost pressures** from rising energy prices and external headwinds—
suggesting cautious optimism across forecasts while affirming Vietnam’s continued
economic strength.

**Source** : [Strong fundamentals to keep Vietnam at the top of ASEAN growth rankings](https://vir.com.vn/strong-fundamentals-to-keep-vietnam-at-the-top-of-asean-growth-rankings-156251.html)