# Can Vietnam Sustain Double-Digit Growth?

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/vietnam/332344-can-vietnam-sustain-double-digit-growth
- Published: 2026-10-13T03:19:37+07:00
- Author: News Desk

Vietnam’s export and foreign direct investment led growth model has underpinned 
strong economic performance and supported its transition to upper-middle income 
status.

As Vietnam enters the next stage of development, however, the growth model faces
a more challenging environment, with diminishing returns to capital accumulation,
slower labor-force expansion, scope for more efficient labor allocation and utilization
of human capital, and a less favorable external outlook.

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Estimates using several approaches suggest that Vietnam retains solid medium-term
growth potential, with productivity expected to play an increasingly central role
as traditional growth drivers weaken. Achieving the government’s ambition of double-
digit growth over the medium term would require a substantial acceleration in investment
and productivity relative to historical trends, while relying on credit or fiscal
expansion to support economic activity beyond the economy’s productive capacity 
could heighten macro-financial risks.

Sustained progress toward higher-income status will therefore hinge on preserving
macroeconomic stability while improving investment efficiency, strengthening human
capital and domestic capabilities, deepening technology diffusion, and addressing
infrastructure bottlenecks.

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Source: [Can Vietnam Sustain Double-Digit Growth? An Assessment of Growth Potential – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office ](https://www.amro-asia.org/can-vietnam-sustain-double-digit-growth-an-assessment-of-growth-potential)