Thailand’s household debt to reach 16.9 trillion baht, 91.4% of GDP. Non-performing loans and slow economic recovery pose risks.
Thailand’s household debt is projected to reach 16.9 trillion baht, or 91.4% of GDP, by the end of this year, with non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system estimated at about 152 billion baht, according to TMB Thanachart Analytics.
As of the end of the third quarter last year, household debt stood at 16.2 trillion baht, accounting for 90.9% of GDP, up 3.4% from the same period the previous year.
Rising Non-Performing Loans
The 3.4% increase was lower than the previous year due to tightened lending practices by commercial banks. However, credit card loans, leasing, and personal loans increased at a higher rate.
Non-performing loans in the banking system grew by 2.79% to about 152 billion baht, while outstanding car lease repayments overdue by 1-3 months amounted to about 170 billion baht, excluding lending by non-bank institutions and special financial institutions (SFIs).
Impact on Economic Growth
The anticipated slow growth of household debt in line with the gradual economic recovery is expected to impact consumption and economic growth in the long run. TMB noted that a third of the household debt is for non-productive loans such as credit card borrowing and personal loans. It recommends responsible lending practices and risk-based pricing to improve the financial discipline of household debtors.
Thailand’s household debt to GDP ratio has consistently exceeded 80% since 2015, with a large portion being non-productive loans. This is notably higher compared to neighbouring countries such as Malaysia and China, where the figures are 14% and 13% respectively, according to the center.
