# SCB EIC anticipates two policy rate cuts in April and June 2024

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/banking/133236-scb-eic-anticipates-two-policy-rate-cuts-in-april-and-june-2024
- Published: 2024-03-29T06:29:00+07:00
- Author: Akanksha Singh

**SCB EIC lowers Thai economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7% due to weak manufacturing
sector, structural challenges, and anticipates policy rate cuts to sustain neutral
monetary policy.**

SCB EIC estimates a decrease in Thailand’s potential GDP growth to 2.7% for the 
long term (2024-2045), driven by declining total factor productivity and deepening
structural challenges in the manufacturing sector.

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**The forecast includes two expected policy rate cuts by the MPC in April and June
2024 to sustain a neutral monetary policy stance and support economic growth** while
alleviating high debt burdens for vulnerable businesses and households.

SCB EIC has revised down the Thai economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7% due 
to a moderation in economic momentum and slow recovery in the manufacturing sector,
impacted by structural challenges. Despite anticipated growth in demand factors 
such as exports and private investments, challenges persist with weakening momentum
from the public sector and high inventory levels within the manufacturing sector
hindering overall progress.

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The manufacturing sector faces challenges on both the supply and demand sides, including
higher penetration of imports, sluggish overseas demand, delays in budget acts, 
geopolitical risks, and high inventory levels. These factors contribute to a lower
competitiveness in Thai exports and hinder the sector’s recovery trajectory, reflecting
significant structural challenges within the industry.

[Source link ](https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/product/9449?rand=55232)