# Thailand’s Economy Softens in February 2026 – Bank of Thailand Report

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/banking/298473-thailands-economy-softens-in-february-2026-bank-of-thailand-report
- Published: 2026-04-02T10:57:47+07:00
- Author: Jessica Lee

**In February, Thailand’s economy softened, with declines in exports, tourism, and
private consumption, despite growth in private investment and government spending.
Headline inflation decreased, while core inflation remained stable. Key issues include
geopolitical events and energy policy impacts.**

## Key Points

 * **Exports** declined in key categories (petroleum, gems & jewelry) following 
   a temporary surge in the prior month, while **tourism receipts** fell due to 
   fewer long-haul arrivals, including reduced visitors from the Middle East and
   Malaysia partly due to Ramadan.
 * **Private consumption** softened, driven by lower durable goods spending after
   consumers front-loaded electric vehicle purchases ahead of the EV 3.0 scheme 
   expiry.
 * **Manufacturing output** decreased, notably in petroleum (scheduled refinery 
   maintenance) and electrical appliances (high competition), dragging down related
   services such as trade, hotels, and restaurants.
 * **Private investment** continued to grow, supported by machinery and equipment
   spending, and **government spending** expanded in both current and capital expenditures.
 * **Headline inflation** turned more negative due to lower fresh food prices; **
   core inflation** remained positive and broadly stable.
 * The **current account** recorded a surplus, driven mainly by a trade surplus.

**Key risks to monitor:** Middle East conflict developments, household and business
adaptability to higher energy prices, and shifts in U.S. trade policy.

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**Why It Matters:** The report signals a cooling Thai economy in early 2026, with
temporary factors unwinding and external uncertainties — particularly U.S. trade
policy and geopolitical tensions — posing ongoing risks to the outlook.

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Summary

 * The Thai economy in February softened from the previous month, with activity 
   moderating on both the demand and supply sides.
    - On the demand side, merchandise exports excluding gold declined in some categories
      following a strong expansion in the previous month, partly due to the unwinding
      of temporary factors. Tourism receipts also declined in line with lower foreign
      tourist arrivals. Private consumption also softened, after earlier front-loaded
      purchases of electric vehicles ahead of the expiry of the EV 3.0 scheme. However,
      private investment continued to grow. Government spending also expanded, driven
      by increases in both current and capital expenditures of the central government.
    - On the supply side, overall activity moderated, reflecting declines in both
      services and manufacturing production.
 * Headline inflation turned more negative, mainly due to lower food prices, while
   core inflation remained positive and broadly stable compared to the previous 
   month.
 * Key issues to monitor: (1) developments in the Middle East conflict, (2) the 
   adaptability of businesses and households, including government measures related
   to higher energy prices, and (3) changes in U.S. trade policy.

**Source** : [https://www.bot.or.th/en/news-and-media/news/news-20260331.html](https://www.bot.or.th/en/news-and-media/news/news-20260331.html?rand=113190)