# SCB EIC revised its 2026 forecast for Thailand’s GDP growth to 2%

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/banking/316233-scb-eic-revised-its-2026-forecast-for-thailands-gdp-growth-to-2
- Published: 2026-06-30T22:06:42+07:00
- Author: Jessica Lee

* SCB EIC revised Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2%, citing eased Middle
   East tensions, lower energy prices, tourism recovery, and stronger electronics
   exports. However, high production costs from the prior conflict continue to pressure
   inflation, household purchasing power, and business margins, with further strain
   expected from the second quarter onward.
 * The recovery follows a K-shaped pattern, benefiting large technology-linked businesses
   while low- and middle-income households and SMEs remain constrained by slow income
   growth and high debt. Growth for 2027 is forecast at 1.9%, with the Monetary 
   Policy Committee expected to hold the policy rate at 1% throughout 2026 amid 
   supply-driven inflation and tight credit conditions.

**SCB EIC has revised its 2026 forecast for Thailand’s economic growth to 2%, following
the easing of the situation in the Middle East, which has led to lower energy prices,
alleviating travel costs and supporting the recovery of the tourism sector. Exports
and investment in certain industry groups also continue to expand well.**

However, the Thai economy is likely to slow down in the coming period due to the
impact of higher energy and raw material costs from the previous conflict, which
is now affecting production costs, inflation, and purchasing power. Even with additional
government support, particularly the 400 billion baht loan decree, the recovery 
remains a K-shaped pattern, concentrated in certain sectors, especially the electronics
industry which is highly reliant on imports. Meanwhile, low- and middle-income households
and SMEs remain vulnerable due to slowing income and high debt levels. For 2027,
the Thai economy is expected to grow at a similar rate of 1.9%, reflecting limitations
in new economic drivers amidst tight financial pressures and high external risks.

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**The Thai economy received a short-term boost from the easing of the conflict in
the Middle East, but the cost impact continues to put pressure on the economy.**

The decline in oil prices, though still higher than pre-war levels, has helped mitigate
the impact on businesses, particularly the tourism sector, which is expected to 
recover better due to lower travel costs. Meanwhile, exports, especially in the 
electronics industry, continue to grow, and foreign investment is expanding well.
However, the effects of previously high energy and production costs are still gradually
being passed on to the real economy and will put more pressure on economic activity
from the second quarter onwards.SCB EIC estimates that these impacts will be transmitted
to the Thai economy through three main channels: 

**(1) energy and production costs will** put pressure on inflation, the cost of 
living, household purchasing power, and affect business profit margins, especially
those that are energy-intensive and logistics-intensive **; **

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**(2) a slowdown in the global economy will** affect exports due to weaker global
purchasing power, especially in markets directly affected by the war. Meanwhile,
the high import energy prices in the preceding period and the accelerating trend
in capital goods imports will put pressure on the trade balance and current account
balance, which are likely to worsen significantly this year; and 

**(3) tighter financial conditions** due to volatility in financial markets and 
capital flows, resulting in a higher risk premium and yield curve.

**A clear K-shaped recovery is emerging, concentrated in large businesses and the
technology sector, while households and SMEs remain vulnerable.**
SCB EIC projects
that the Thai economy is showing a clearer K-shaped recovery trend, driven primarily
by large businesses and technology-related industries such as AI, data centers, 
electronics, and digital infrastructure. These sectors are supported by investment
and exports of certain goods. However, because most of these businesses have a high
proportion of imports, their positive impact on domestic supply chains, employment,
and broader income is limited.Conversely, low- and middle-income households and 
SMEs remain vulnerable to slow income recovery, rising production costs and living
expenses, and high debt burdens. This limits consumption recovery and puts pressure
on businesses that rely on domestic purchasing power, particularly small businesses
and certain service sectors, impacting sales, liquidity, and debt repayment ability.
The disparity in recovery between business and household sectors will be a significant
constraint on the Thai economy in the coming period.

**The Thai economy is projected to grow at a low rate in 2026-2027, despite government
support through the 400 billion baht emergency decree.**
**SCB EIC forecasts Thailand’s
economy to grow by 2% in 2026, higher than its previous forecast but still lower
than the previous average. This forecast is driven** by better-than-expected first-
quarter economic figures, the easing of the situation in the Middle East, and government
support, particularly the 400 billion baht loan decree, which will help support 
the economy through measures to reduce the cost of living, stimulate spending, and
some investment related to the energy transition. However, the support from the “
Thai Helps Thai Plus” measures will mainly boost economic activity in the short 
term, before this momentum slows towards the end of the year. The clarity of the
energy transition measures still needs to be monitored to assess their impact on
the economy.**For 2027, SCB EIC forecasts that the Thai economy will expand at a
rate similar to 2026, around 1.9%** , reflecting constraints from new drivers for
medium-term growth. Existing drivers remain limited by factors such as slow consumer
recovery due to the deleveraging process of household debt, concentrated investment
and exports with high dependence on imports, reduced government policy space, and
the vulnerability of SMEs facing intense competition and tight financial conditions.**
Monetary policy faces limitations; the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to 
maintain the policy interest rate at 1% throughout this year.**SCB EIC estimates
that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to maintain its policy interest
rate at 1% throughout 2026. Inflationary pressures are primarily driven by supply-
side factors, and long-term inflation expectations among the public and businesses
remain unaffected. SCB EIC revised its average inflation forecast for this year 
down from its previous view to 2.6%, remaining within the target range. This is 
due to the easing of the war situation leading to lower energy prices. Simultaneously,
Thailand maintains strong external stability and high levels of international reserves,
thus eliminating the need to urgently raise interest rates to control inflation 
and currency depreciation, as has been observed in some regional countries.Although
policy interest rates remain low, overall financial conditions remain tight, particularly
for retail borrowers and SMEs, due to slowing income growth and cautious lending
practices by financial institutions driven by declining loan quality and repayment
ability risks. Therefore, measures to assist borrowers and increase SME access to
credit, coupled with measures to enhance income-generating capabilities, will play
a crucial role in improving liquidity and sustaining the economy in the coming period.

**Businesses face pressure, but opportunities remain in sectors related to AI, FDI,
and megatrends.**
Thai businesses face significant pressure from costs that remain
higher than pre-war levels, supply chain volatility, and uneven demand recovery.
These factors are impacting sales, profit margins, and liquidity for many businesses,
particularly those limited in passing on costs to consumers in a fragile demand 
environment.SCB EIC believes that future business trends will show clearer divergence,
particularly among large corporations and SMEs, as well as businesses that can adapt
by reducing costs, increasing productivity, and connecting with supply chains that
thrive in line with major global trends. These businesses will be able to maintain
their growth, but close monitoring of cost risks and demand volatility is necessary.
Growth opportunities remain in AI-related businesses, foreign investment, and megatrends
such as electronics, data centers, clean energy, food, and healthcare. These sectors
are supported by new investments, technological advancements, manufacturing relocation,
and long-term shifts in consumer behavior. Therefore, Thai businesses should accelerate
efficiency improvements, cost restructuring, and integration into new supply chains
to enhance competitiveness amidst high global economic uncertainty.

**The global economy is slowing down this year amid rising global inflation and 
interest rates.**
SCB EIC forecasts that the global economy will expand by 2.5% 
and 2.6% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, driven primarily by investment.In the field
of AI, electronics manufacturing countries continue to benefit. The situation in
the Middle East has improved, but high uncertainty remains. Looking ahead, the US
tariffs under Section 301 remain a major risk to global trade in the second half
of the year. Regarding monetary policy, major central banks around the world continue
to prioritize the risk of inflation exceeding their targets. SCB EIC believes the
Fed will not ease monetary policy this year, maintaining interest rates at 3.5-3.75%
throughout the year. Global financial conditions are expected to remain tight due
to high government bond yields.