# China’s Economic Recovery and Outlook

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/china/150496-chinas-economic-recovery-and-outlook
- Published: 2024-07-09T23:32:53+07:00
- Author: News Desk

**China’s economy is on the mend, with a projected GDP growth of 5% in 2024, bolstered
by consumption, investment, and policy initiatives. However, external uncertainties
and domestic financial pressures pose significant risks.**

## Key Takeaways

 * China’s economic recovery is gaining traction with projected GDP growth of 5.3
   percent in 2024 and 4.9 percent in 2025, driven by consumption, investment, and
   a rebound in external demand.
 * The balance of risks is slightly tilted to the downside due to uncertainties 
   in the external sector, potential setbacks in the real estate sector recovery,
   and persistent financial strains on some local governments.
 * To sustain economic growth, China must intensify structural reforms, implement
   fiscal consolidation, address local government debt risks, provide targeted support
   to lagging sectors, and upgrade its labor force to transition to a technologically
   advanced

China’s economic recovery has gained momentum, primarily driven by external demand
and reduced impacts from the real estate sector correction. The GDP growth is projected
to be 5.3% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025, as highlighted by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic
Research Office (AMRO) during its Annual Consultation Visit to China. Authorities
are restructuring the economy to enhance growth quality, transitioning towards a
technologically advanced economy.

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## Key Discussions and Findings

AMRO’s discussions with Chinese policymakers focused on economic recovery drivers,
short-term risks, and geoeconomic fragmentation impacts. Despite strong external
challenges, China’s economy grew by 5.2% in 2023. Both consumption and investment
in high-tech sectors are expected to drive growth. Real estate is undergoing a major
correction, with recovery anticipated by mid-2025.

## Risks and Policy Recommendations

Risks include potential US monetary policy tightening, geopolitical tensions, and
real estate sector setbacks. To sustain growth, China should continue structural
reforms, manage fiscal policies to reduce debt, and support the financial and real
estate sectors. Enhancing the labor force, improving migrant worker conditions, 
and strengthening the social security system are also crucial for long-term growth.
AMRO emphasizes China’s commitment to multilateral trade rules and welcomes the 
Belt and Road Initiative’s shift towards renewable energy projects.

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## About AMRO

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) aims to ensure macroeconomic and
financial stability in the ASEAN+3 region. It conducts macroeconomic surveillance,
supports regional financial arrangements, and provides technical assistance to its
members, which include the 10 ASEAN nations plus China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea.

Source: [ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office ](https://amro-asia.org/china-recovers-robustly-undertakes-strategic-restructuring-toward-high-quality-development)