# Thailand Business News — Evening Briefing - Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/china/326601-thailand-business-news-evening-briefing - Published: 2026-09-03T16:04:33+07:00 - Author: Daniel Lorenzzo ### Thailand & Asia | 3 September 2026 ## Thai business group upgrades 2026 growth forecast on stronger exports and investment Thailand’s Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has raised its **2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1–2.5%**, from 1.6–2.0%, citing stronger-than- expected exports and private investment. The group now expects exports to expand** 12–16%**, compared with its previous 8–10% forecast, although it warned that imported content is limiting the domestic spillover from the export and investment boom. ( [The Business Times](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/thai-business-group-raises-2026-gdp-growth-forecast-range-2-1-2-5)) **Key figures:** GDP **2.1–2.5%**; exports **+12–16%**; 2026 inflation forecast ** 2.5–3.0%**; Q2 GDP **+1.9% year-on-year**, down from 2.8% in Q1. ADVERTISEMENT **Why it matters:** The upgrade provides a more positive near-term growth signal, but the warning over import dependence is significant. Thailand is generating strong external demand while capturing a relatively small share of the resulting value domestically, reinforcing the case for deeper local supply chains and higher-value manufacturing. --- ## Thailand faces a sharper trade imbalance with China Thailand’s trade deficit with China widened **59.31% to US$55.13 billion** in the first seven months of 2026, as Chinese imports surged much faster than Thai exports. Imports from China increased **38.49%**, while Thai exports to China rose only 9.17%; electrical machinery and components alone jumped **83%** to US$19.37 billion. ([nationthailand](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/40070567)) ![Image](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/oFhOWpCPKwBsf2bFWjsVqceyje3z2T96IilwsKXzLzsRSKx3kyRn4563Tm4pxqwEZB4vkE9qZVXUAlvDcbGqczTNHcp- Wbly1YkTZcFTmbfeMHkEQuhEmKwovp6URmj8rV3wWfKe2g4r6B37uIhtT2AMw364v-SF7pJ6cDnFKsIChzpZUQVG70d7v4n9zFly? purpose=fullsize) **Key figures:** Bilateral trade **US$108.8bn** Jan–July; Chinese imports **+38.49%**; Thai exports **+9.17%**; bilateral deficit **US$55.13bn**; electrical machinery/ component imports **US$19.37bn**, +83%. ### Related**Posts** ### 󠀁[Thailand Police Arrest 39 in Major Cross-Border Scam Crackdown, Seize THB500 Million in Assets](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/china/334263-thailand-police-arrest-39-in-major-cross-border-scam-crackdown-seize-thb500-million-in-assets)󠁿 ### 󠀁[Thailand Business News — Morning Briefing](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/news/headline/334027-thailand-business-news-morning-briefing-4)󠁿 ### 󠀁[Singapore Pillar Two Registration: Steps Multinational Groups Should Take](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/329970-singapore-pillar-two-registration-what-multinational-groups-need-to-do)󠁿 ### 󠀁[ASEAN Can Weather a Typhoon, But a Taiwan Crisis Is a Different Story](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/318167-asean-can-weather-a-typhoon-but-a-taiwan-crisis-is-a-different-story)󠁿 **Why it matters:** The surge is partly investment-related, with Chinese machinery and components supporting EV, electronics, AI and data-centre projects in Thailand. But the scale of the deficit is increasing pressure on policymakers to require greater local sourcing and ensure that Chinese investment generates more domestic economic value. --- ## Thailand launches 5GW rooftop solar drive as oil risks intensify **NEW** Thailand is launching a programme to install **5 gigawatts of rooftop solar on one million households within a year**, backed by a **THB200 billion** energy-transition emergency fund. The initiative is designed to reduce exposure to volatile LNG and oil prices as renewed US-Iran conflict pushes global energy costs higher. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/thailand-backs-rooftop-solar-guard-against-lng-price-surges-minister-says-2026-09-02/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) ![Image](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/-YV-cjvl1o6oPhqXIrFOB5SZ2AYtTiwQ- Q4RsQsJhwLAqGYMVrK9zf70i4PWjd9mm-CWjLP-yeLQT-mhwN7e-pHElvKIR4oVKAn9FUaer9K_gzSfkVTadAvxdLps5q294i8VU74Y1YZooyMGUFTKXTULgrlS5HU0v6nxyeMqsc4tzBA4fiLCXccKpf6Hkwy3? purpose=fullsize) **Key figures:** **5GW** new rooftop solar; **1 million households**; emergency fund **THB200bn**; household subsidy **THB50,000**; current solar share about ** 10%** of electricity generation; more than **60%** of generation comes from natural gas. **Why it matters:** Thailand remains exposed to imported LNG and global energy-price shocks, making the solar programme both an energy-security measure and an industrial- policy opportunity. Faster distributed generation could also support Thailand’s data-centre ambitions by easing pressure on the electricity system. [Reuters — Thailand rooftop solar initiative](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/thailand-backs-rooftop-solar-guard-against-lng-price-surges-minister-says-2026-09-02/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) --- ## Japan’s yen rebound highlights renewed intervention and rate-hike risks Japan’s yen strengthened sharply on Wednesday, reaching **158.92 per US dollar**, after having weakened toward 160 following the US-Japan intervention at the end of July. The move came as Bank of Japan officials signalled greater flexibility over rate hikes, while markets continued to assess whether Wednesday’s currency move reflected another official rate check. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/dollar-holds-firm-middle-east-hostilities-lift-oil-2026-09-02/)) **Key figures:** Yen **158.92/USD**, +0.79%; previous recent low **163.98/USD**; Fed September hike probability **63%**, up from 35% before recent hawkish comments; Brent crude rose about **1%**. **Why it matters:** Japan’s currency and monetary-policy decisions have regional implications for capital flows and Asian exchange rates. A stronger yen could ease competitive pressure on Thai exporters in some markets, but simultaneous US rate expectations and higher oil prices could continue to weigh on the baht and Thailand’s import costs. [Reuters — Yen rebound and Japan monetary policy](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/dollar-holds-firm-middle-east-hostilities-lift-oil-2026-09-02/)