# Thai Baht Stays Range-Bound as Inflation Eases and BoT Holds Steady

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/currencies/319473-thai-baht-stays-range-bound-as-inflation-eases-and-bot-holds-steady
- Published: 2026-07-13T07:15:00+07:00
- Author: Chloe Zhou

* Thailand’s headline inflation eased to 2.4% year-on-year in June, falling below
   consensus and remaining within the Bank of Thailand’s 1–3% target range. Core
   inflation edged up slightly to 1.2%, while energy and non-food prices moderated.
   The Ministry of Commerce maintained its 2026 inflation forecast at 1.5–2.5%.
 * Commerzbank analyst Charlie Lay expects the BoT to hold its policy rate at 1%
   through its August meeting and potentially through year-end. With inflation dynamics
   viewed as manageable, USD/THB is expected to remain range-bound near recent highs,
   though risks from energy price rebounds or El Niño-related food pressures could
   alter the outlook.

**Thai inflation eased to 2.4% yoy in June, within BoT’s target range. Core inflation
rose to 1.2%. Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay expects BoT to hold rates at 1% through 
August’s meeting and possibly year-end, supporting steady USD/THB near range highs.**

---

## Key Points

• **USD/THB Trend**: Edged higher on easing Thai inflation data, supporting expectations
of a steady BoT policy stance.

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• **Inflation Data**: June inflation eased to 2.4% yoy from 2.8% in May; core inflation
rose slightly to 1.2% yoy; energy and non-food prices moderated.

• **Policy Outlook**: Data reinforces case for BoT to hold rates at 1% through August
meeting and possibly year-end, barring energy or food price shocks.

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### Inflation Trends Support Stable Currency Outlook

Thailand’s headline inflation eased for a second straight month in June, falling
to **2.4% year-on-year** from 2.8% in May, coming in below the Bloomberg consensus
of 2.7%. This keeps inflation comfortably within the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) target
range of **1-3%**, with a year-to-date average of just 1.1%. According to Commerzbank’s
Charlie Lay, this moderation follows a steady pickup since April, after negative
readings persisted from April 2025 through March 2026. Food prices remained stable
at 1% yoy, while non-food prices slowed to 3.3% from 4%, largely due to decelerating
energy costs, which dropped to **13.7% yoy** from 18.1% previously.

### Core Inflation and Policy Forecasts Remain Contained

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, ticked up slightly to **1.2% yoy**, surpassing
the 1.1% consensus estimate but still modest. The Ministry of Commerce has maintained
its 2026 inflation forecast at **1.5-2.5%**, citing supportive factors such as lower
electricity tariffs and ample meat supplies that should help offset price pressures.
Inflation is expected to remain above 2% for much of the second half of the year,
partly due to a favorable base effect from last year’s weaker figures. However, 
easing energy costs are projected to further moderate overall price growth, reinforcing
a relatively stable macroeconomic backdrop for Thailand heading into the latter 
half of 2026.

---

### BoT Likely to Maintain Rates Amid Manageable Risks

Given these trends, **Commerzbank expects the BoT to hold its policy rate at 1%**
during its upcoming meeting on 26 August, with the possibility of maintaining this
stance through year-end. The central bank appears to view current inflation dynamics
as manageable and supportive of broader economic activity, rather than warranting
tightening. Nonetheless, **risks remain**, particularly from a potential rebound
in global energy prices or unexpected food price increases linked to El Niño weather
patterns. These factors could pressure inflation upward, though policymakers currently
see limited urgency to adjust rates. As a result, USD/THB is expected to stay within
recent trading ranges, with the currency pair currently hovering near its range 
highs as markets price in continued policy stability from the BoT.

**Source** : [Thai Baht: Range-bound after inflation data against dollar – Commerzbank](https://www.tmgm.com/en-in/analysis/market-news/article/thai-baht-range-bound-after-inflation-data-against-dollar-commerzbank-202607081951)