# SCB EIC expects steady policy rate at 2.5% throughout the year

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/126323-scb-eic-expects-steady-policy-rate-at-2-5-throughout-the-year
- Published: 2024-02-15T10:02:32+07:00
- Author: Economic Intelligence Center Siam Commercial Bank

**The MPC voted 5-2 to maintain the policy rate at 2.50% as the Thai economy is 
projected to slow in 2024, attributed to reduced exports and manufacturing activity.
Inflation is low, but there are expectations for gradual growth, while the financial
system demonstrates resilience.**

[The MPC voted 5 to 2 to keep the policy rate at 2.50 percent](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/banking/125677-bank-of-thailand-withstands-political-pressure-keeps-rate-unchanged-at-2-5),
with two members in favor of reducing the rate by 0.25 percentage point. The MPC
anticipates a slowdown in the Thai economy in 2024 as a result of softening global
demand and moderating growth in China.

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The slower initial momentum suggests a gentler outlook for 2024 growth, expected
to be between 2.5-3 percent. Private consumption and tourism will continue to drive
growth, while exports and manufacturing activity will grow moderately due to global
demand constraints and a delayed upturn in the Thai electronic cycle. In the future,
structural obstacles, especially declining competitiveness, could increasingly hinder
growth without structural reforms.

This has led to challenges in merchandise exports and tourism. However, domestic
demand remains strong and continues to be a key driver of the economy. Inflation
is expected to gradually increase towards the target range, albeit at a slower pace
than expected.

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Supply factors, such as lower raw food and energy prices, as well as government 
subsidies, are expected to result in lower headline inflation. The MPC also notes
that the overall financial system remains resilient, with stable overall financial
conditions. While businesses and households continue to access new funding, small
businesses in certain industries may face tighter credit conditions and more stringent
credit standards.

[Source link ](https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/product/9423?rand=55232)