# Thai export recovery has stalled, yet growth in 2024 is expected to remain positive

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/135252-thai-export-recovery-has-stalled-yet-growth-in-2024-is-expected-to-remain-positive
- Published: 2024-05-10T20:53:11+07:00
- Author: Economic Intelligence Center Siam Commercial Bank

Import values increased, mainly from China and Europe, leading to a trade deficit.
In March, exports are expected to decline due to the high base effect, but exports
related to military drills may offset this decline. SCB EIC forecasts a 3.1% export
growth for 2024, lower than previous estimates, citing challenges in adapting to
changing global demand patterns.

The signal of Thai export recovery has slowed in the short term as the value of 
Thai exports in February 2024 only increased by 3.6%YOY compared to the previous
year. This growth rate is considerably lower than the 10% growth seen in the prior
month. Exports of agricultural and manufacturing products stalled, while agro-industrial,
mining, and fuel products experienced contraction, indicating signs of a slowing
short-term recovery.

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Exports to key destinations showed uneven growth, with exports to the US and Switzerland
experiencing robust expansions, while exports to China, Japan, and the Middle East
contracted. The trade deficit persisted as imports of capital and consumer goods
increased, mainly from Europe and China.

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SCB EIC anticipates a decline in merchandise exports in March 2024 due to the high
base effect from the previous year. Despite recovery in global manufacturing conditions,
exports may contract, with exports of weaponry for overseas military drills potentially
mitigating the decline. SCB EIC expects export growth to improve in 2024, driven
by improving global trade volume and manufacturing sector conditions, although the
forecast has been revised down to 3.1% due to external factors affecting global 
trade.

[Source link ](https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/product/9463?rand=55232)