Thai exports in May 2024 increased by 7.2% compared to the previous year, driven by agricultural product exports, particularly fruits to China. Imports decreased leading to a trade surplus. SCB EIC expects export growth to continue in June and throughout 2024, with a similar trend anticipated for 2025.
Exports in May saw a positive growth of 7.2% compared to the same time last year, reflecting a steady increase in Thai export recovery. Despite this, excluding gold and base effects, exports contracted by -1.3% compared to the previous month. Agricultural product exports, especially fruits to China, played a significant role in boosting overall export growth during the month.
Exports to China and India saw robust growth, while exports to Australia and the Middle East contracted. The trade balance returned to a surplus in May as imports decreased, marking the first contraction in four consecutive months. Imports of vehicles and capital goods saw a notable drop, while raw materials and consumer goods imports expanded.
SCB EIC predicts continued export growth in June and H2/2024, with expectations of a positive 2.6% growth rate for the year. Factors supporting this growth include a strengthening global economy, improved manufacturing sector performance, and favorable export product prices. Looking ahead to 2025, SCB EIC anticipates similar export growth as in 2024, influenced by global economic conditions and trade volume projections. However, risks such as political outcomes and trade conflicts may impact export growth potential.
