The Asian Development Bank has revised up its growth forecast for developing Asia in 2024 to 5.0%, citing improved tech-related exports in South Korea and Taiwan, and robust domestic demand across the region.
- The Asian Development Bank has revised upward its growth forecast for developing Asia in 2024 to 5.0%, driven by improved tech-related exports and robust domestic demand.
- Risks such as U.S. election uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and trade fragmentation could disrupt supply chains and deepen the Chinese property slump, according to the report.
- Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines and Vietnam are expected to benefit from rising global demand for semiconductors and electronics, with projected growth of 6.0% in 2024.
The growth forecast for Southeast Asia remains at 4.6% this year due to strong improvements in domestic and external demand. However, Thailand’s growth forecast of 2.6% indicates that the country’s economy is expected to expand at a moderate pace. This growth rate is lower than that of most other countries in the region, with the notable exception of Singapore. The unchanged forecast suggests that Thailand’s economic outlook has not significantly improved or deteriorated compared to previous assessments.
“Most of Asia and the Pacific is seeing faster economic growth compared with the second half of last year.”
ADB Chief Economist Albert Park
The report also mentioned potential risks such as U.S. election uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and trade fragmentation. The ADB kept growth forecasts for China at 4.8% for 2024. It upgraded growth projections for South Korea to 2.5% and Taiwan to 3.5%, while also noting that the Philippines and Vietnam are expected to benefit from rising global demand for semiconductors and electronics.
Inflation is forecast to slow to 2.9% this year amid easing global food prices and the lingering effects of higher interest rates, according to the latest edition of Asian Development Outlook (ADO), released today.
Additionally, some countries in the region are beginning to loosen monetary policy to stimulate consumption, influenced by interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies.
| ADB’s latest and previous GDP forecast (In percent) | |||||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||
| April | Latest | April | Latest | ||
| Developing Asia | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| East Asia | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| China | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Hong Kong | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| South Korea | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Taiwan | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Southeast Asia | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Malaysia | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Philippines | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Singapore | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Thailand | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Vietnam | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| South Asia | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| India | 8.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| Source: Asian Development Bank | |||||
