# SCB EIC anticipates a 2.6% increase in Thai exports for 2024

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/155681-scb-eic-anticipates-a-2-6-increase-in-thai-exports-for-2024
- Published: 2024-08-14T10:09:54+07:00
- Author: Economic Intelligence Center Siam Commercial Bank

**Thai exports in June 2024 experienced a 0.3% year-on-year decline, primarily due
to a notable decrease in fruit exports to China, although there was a substantial
increase in gold exports. Despite the decline in exports, Thailand recorded a trade
surplus.**

In June 2024, Thailand’s exports fell to USD 24,796.6 million, marking a slight 
decline of 0.3% year-on-year. This decrease was driven by a significant drop in 
fruit exports to China, impacted by drought conditions. While gold exports surged
by 184.1%, the overall export trend remained down, with a seasonally adjusted month-
over-month decline of 0.4%. For the first half of 2024, exports totaled USD 145,290
million, reflecting a modest 2% increase year-on-year.

ADVERTISEMENT

Exports in agro-industrial and agricultural sectors particularly struggled, with
fruit exports plummeting by 40.2% to China. Conversely, some sectors like rice and
rubber showed positive growth. Manufacturing exports only grew by 0.3%, while mining
and fuel product exports faced stagnation.

However, Thailand recorded a slight trade surplus in June, with imports rising to
USD 24,578.5 million. Looking ahead, SCB EIC anticipates improved export performance
for July and the latter half of 2024 due to easing comparison factors and positive
global economic indicators. Predictions suggest overall export growth of 2.6% for
2024, contingent on global economic developments and challenges in adapting to market
demands.

### Related**Posts**

###  󠀁[Thai economy improved in September driven by exports and private investment](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/337800-thai-economy-improved-in-september-driven-by-exports-and-private-investment)󠁿

###  󠀁[Bank of Thailand Raises Growth Forecasts but Warns Recovery Remains Concentrated](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/banking/337755-bank-of-thailand-raises-growth-forecasts-but-warns-recovery-remains-concentrated)󠁿

###  󠀁[Oil Prices Surge on Saudi Attacks, Raising Risks for Thailand’s Recovery](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/business/335915-oil-prices-surge-on-saudi-attacks-raising-risks-for-thailands-recovery)󠁿

###  󠀁[Thailand Faces a New Economic Test Nearly 30 Years After Its IMF Rescue](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/334123-thailand-faces-a-new-economic-test-nearly-30-years-after-its-imf-rescue)󠁿

## **SCB EIC anticipates that Thai exports will improve in July and the second half of the year**

**SCB EIC expects a return to growth in July,** driven by the low base effect from
July 2023, when exports plunged by -10.3% due to gloomy global economic conditions
at the time and a significant decline in gold exports by -53.7%.

Moreover, global economic and manufacturing indicators suggest a recovery in Thai
exports, as reflected by the global Purchasing Manager’s Index, which remained above
50 (Figure 4), despite the indicator dropping below 50 in developed economies in
the latest month (Figure 5). With such regards, **SCB EIC projects a 2.6% expansion
in Thai exports for 2024 (balance of payments basis and outlook as of June 2024),**
based on current global economic trends, world manufacturing conditions, and with
export prices that should surpass prior estimates.
**Looking ahead to 2025, Thai
exports are expected to grow at a similar rate to 2024,** following global economic
conditions that should grow at a similar rate to this year and higher trade volume
compared to 2024 from higher demand for manufacturing products. However, several
factors could constrain growth, including structural issues within Thailand’s export
sector, which struggles to fully adapt to changing global market demands, and increasing
use of protectionism trade barriers by major trading partners following election
playouts in various key economies, especially the US and EU. Additionally, China’s
overcapacity remains a concern that must be monitored, as it makes it more difficult
for Thai products to compete on price with Chinese products in the global market.**
SCB EIC is currently revising the Thai export forecasts ​​for 2024 and 2025, with
the update expected to be published in late August.**

[Source link ](https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/product/9549?rand=55232)