SCB EIC forecasts Thailand’s GDP growth at 2.5% for 2024 and 2.6% for 2025, with tourism driving growth. Inflation will drop to 0.6%, and policy rates may decrease to 2% by early 2025.
1. What is the current state of the Thai economy?
SCB EIC analyzes the current Thai economy through key economic indicators, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Thai inflation, and Thailand’s policy interest rate.
1.1 Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product (Thailand’s GDP)
SCB EIC estimates that Thailand’s GDP will expand at a low of 2.5% in 2024, as well as 2.6% in 2025, which is still below the growth potential of the Thai economy. For next year, SCB EIC expects the number of foreign tourists to decline slightly from the previous view to 39.4 million. On the challenge of the number of Chinese tourists in group tours who have not fully returned.
1.2 Thailand’s inflation rate
SCB EIC estimates that Thailand’s headline inflation rate in 2024 will decline to 0.6% (from 0.8%) and will return to the lower end of the inflation target range of 1-3% from October this year and continue next year.
1.3 Thailand’s Policy Interest Rate
SCB EIC estimates that the MPC will cut the policy rate in March. December 2024 to 2.25% and again to 2% in early 2025 due to signs of a clear slowdown in domestic demand. This is partly due to prolonged financial tightness.
2. The Thai business sector and driving the economy
Thai businesses still face structural problems that hinder the growth of the Thai economy, especially
1) the automotive industry, which is at risk of losing up to 40% of domestic production capacity if the automotive business cannot keep up with the rapidly changing trend of electric vehicles among consumers, and
2) SMEs facing all-round challenges, including weak domestic purchasing power. Fiercer competition and outdated production and marketing processes.
3. Analysis of the Thai economy
3.1 Thai Economic Analysis Q3 2024
3.2 Thai Economic Analysis for August 2024
3.3 Thai Economic Analysis for July 2024
3.4 Thai Economic Analysis for Q2 2024
3.5 Thai Economic Analysis for May 2024
3.6 Thai Economic Analysis for April 2024
3.7 Thai Economic Analysis Q1 2024
3.8 Thai Economic Analysis for February 2024
3.9 Thai Economic Analysis for January 2024
