# Thai Chamber Predicts GDP Growth Surge from Digital Cash Stimulus

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/165599-thai-chamber-predicts-gdp-growth-surge-from-digital-cash-stimulus
- Published: 2024-09-30T23:50:00+07:00
- Author: Boris Sullivan

The first phase of the 2024 economic stimulus program, which distributes a 10,000-
baht stipend to vulnerable groups, has commenced. The program, totaling 145 billion
baht, is expected to have an immediate impact as recipients are free to spend the
cash, particularly on essential goods and local services.

## Key Takeways

 * The 2024 economic stimulus program in Thailand, distributing a 10,000-baht stipend
   to vulnerable groups, has begun with a budget of 145 billion baht. Dr. Thanavath
   Phonvichai from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) stated 
   that most recipients plan to use the funds for essential goods, potentially circulating
   the money through the economy multiple times.
 * Spending is expected to initially focus on local markets, benefiting community
   businesses, and later supporting larger suppliers. This multiplier effect should
   boost the economy during festive periods like Loy Krathong and New Year, positively
   impacting the tourism sector. Dr. Thanavath anticipates that the stimulus will
   drive Q4 GDP growth to 3.8-4.3%, exceeding earlier projections.
 * Beyond immediate effects, experts like Sanan Angubolkul, Chairman of the Thai
   Chamber of Commerce, stress the need for continuous government measures, including
   tax incentives, to sustain economic momentum. Tracking indicators such as fuel
   consumption, hotel occupancy, and VAT collections are crucial for evaluating 
   the program’s success and pushing annual growth further.

Dr. Thanavath Phonvichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce(
UTCC), noted that surveys from the UTCC and the government show most recipients 
plan to use the funds for necessities, while others may invest in tools or pay off
informal debts. He expects the stimulus to circulate through the economy two to 
three times.

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The first round of spending is likely to focus on local community markets, with 
later rounds benefiting local businesses and larger suppliers. This multiplier effect
is anticipated to boost economic activity during festive periods such as Loy Krathong
and New Year, benefiting the tourism sector in the fourth quarter.

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Dr. Thanavath predicts that the stimulus will contribute to GDP growth of 3.8-4.3%
in Q4, leading to an overall growth of 2.6-2.8% for the year, exceeding previous
projections. He also urged the government to track indicators like fuel consumption,
hotel occupancy, and VAT collections to assess the policy’s success. Additionally,
he recommended further stimulus measures, such as tax incentives, to push overall
growth closer to 3%.

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