Connect with us

Economics

Thailand Business Report 2010 Country Profile

Published

on

Political Unrest Dragging On The Economy ; Thailand’s real GDP surged by 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q409, snapping four quarters of negative growth and confirming a full-year contraction of 2.5%. On our part, we have become slightly more upbeat about Thailand’s economic prospects in 2010, highlighting upside risks to our 3.6% real GDP forecast for the year given the plethora of positive data releases over the last few months.

That said, the as yet unresolved political unrest will be a considerable drag on the economy. We remain wary about the trajectory of the global economy beyond H110, especially as the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis unfolds. Moreover, our global macro team is currently expecting a dip in the US and Chinese economies going into 2011, which would undoubtedly affect Thailand. We are therefore maintaining our projection that real GDP growth will remain somewhat muted at 3.7% in 2011.

A conflict of interest between the pro-Thaksin Shinawatra Red Shirts, anti-Thaksin Yellow Shirts, the military and Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has severely dented the possibility of a quick resolution to Thailand’s political woes. In our view, Abhisit is running out of time and options to end the ongoing street protests held by the opposition Red Shirts for over two months. Indeed, previous attempts by Abhisit to capture the leaders, move the protestors by force and even offering a road map to elections on November has not been met with much success. With patience likely to be running low on all sides, we fear that Abhisit might be compelled to use force, or the Yellow Shirts might take to the streets, leading to further violence in the coming months.

Regarding policy rates, political uncertainties and benign inflation will keep the Bank of Thailand (BOT ) from hiking rates before Q310.

Indeed, consumer price inflation is still relatively low, coming in at 3.0% y-o-y and 0.6% month-on-month in April. However, given that the producer price inflation has been rising sharply, averaging 11.0% y-o-y and 1.1% m-o-m for the three months ending April, pointing to looming price pressures, we expect the BOT to start normalising policy in early Q310, taking the benchmark repo rate from the current 1.25% to 1.75% by end-2010.

Thailand’s economy is dragged down by the turbulent political situation that has stemmed the flow of foreign investors. More recently, the stalled projects at the Map Ta Phut industrial estate has further dampened investor confidence in the country. Although Thailand scores a decent 62.2 in The business environment rating, ranking it fourth (out of 16) in its regional peer group, we note that this score does not fully take into account the headwinds posed by the political situation and the loss of confidence in Thailand as a preferred foreign direct investment destination.

via Thailand Business Forecast Report Q3 2010 Country Profile.

Economics

Asia’s slow rate of vaccination is a thorn in the region’s economic recovery

Southeast Asia has been hit badly. Daily infections for Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam are at their worst, on a seven-day moving average. The Philippines and Malaysia are not far off their daily infection peaks reached in the second quarter of 2021.

Published

on

Last week was tough for the Asia-Pacific region. Many countries responded to stubbornly elevated daily infections by extending or tightening social distancing measures.

(more…)
Continue Reading

Economics

World Bank lowers Thai GDP growth outlook to 2.2%

In the Thailand Economic Monitor released today, the World Bank adjusted its outlook on Thailand’s economic growth this year to just 2.2% from its previous forecast of 3.4%.

Published

on

BANGKOK, July 15, 2021 – Thailand’s economy continues to take a heavy toll due to the COVID-19 pandemic and is projected to expand modestly at 2.2 percent in 2021, revised down from the 3.4 percent growth projected in March, according to the World Bank’s latest Thailand Economic Monitor “The Road to Recovery” published today.

(more…)
Continue Reading

Most Viewed

Subscribe via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 14,162 other subscribers

Wise

Recent