# Thai Economic Growth to Be Impacted by US Tariffs, Central Bank Reports

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/210622-thai-economic-growth-to-be-impacted-by-us-tariffs-central-bank-reports
- Published: 2025-04-18T17:40:57+07:00
- Author: Arun Upadhyaya

Thailand’s economic growth is anticipated to be affected by US tariffs on exports,
but not as significantly as it was during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Sakkapop
Panyanukul, assistant governor of the Bank of Thailand.

---

## Key Points

 * **Economic Impact**: US tariffs will slow Thailand’s growth below 2.5% in 2024,
   affecting exports and manufacturing. The full impact will emerge in H2 2024, 
   but it won’t be as severe as the Covid-19 pandemic.
 * **Trade Uncertainty**: Thailand faces a potential 36% tariff if negotiations 
   fail by July. Global trade policy shifts are a prolonged shock, delaying investments
   and halting some production.
 * **Monetary Policy**: Inflation may dip due to supply factors, but no immediate
   pressure exists for further rate cuts. The central bank will review forecasts
   on April 30 after February’s 25-basis-point reduction.

Tariffs have disrupted production and delayed investments, with significant effects
expected in the second half of the year. Thailand, one of the hardest-hit Southeast
Asian countries, could face a 36% tariff if negotiations fail before the global 
moratorium ends in July. Economic growth might drop below 2.5% this year due to 
increased US imports impacting local manufacturing. While the GDP decrease is uncertain,
it is expected to be less severe than the impact of Covid.

ADVERTISEMENT

The Thai government is actively seeking solutions to mitigate these challenges, 
such as exploring new trade partnerships and enhancing domestic production capabilities.
Additionally, efforts are being made to diversify export markets, reducing reliance
on US imports. The private sector is also adapting by investing in technology and
innovation to improve efficiency and competitiveness. Despite these efforts, the
economic landscape remains uncertain, with businesses closely monitoring the situation
and adjusting their strategies accordingly. Analysts predict that if negotiations
succeed, the economy could stabilize and potentially recover in the latter part 
of the year.

Inflation is expected to decrease due to supply-side factors, with no immediate 
pressure on monetary policy. In February, the central bank reduced the interest 
rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%, addressing weaker growth prospects and global 
trade policy risks. Updated economic forecasts will be released at the next rate
meeting on April 30.

### Related**Posts**

###  󠀁[World Bank raises Thailand’s 2026 growth outlook to 2% but warns AI dependence and climate risks remain](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/332820-world-bank-raises-thailands-2026-growth-outlook-to-2-but-warns-ai-dependence-and-climate-risks-remain)󠁿

###  󠀁[Asia Faces Inflation Pressures Through 2027, ADB Warns](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/330995-asia-faces-inflation-pressures-through-2027-adb-warns)󠁿

###  󠀁[Weekend Long Read: Why emerging economies in Asia face a tougher road to growth](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/329802-weekend-long-read-why-emerging-economies-in-asia-face-a-tougher-road-to-growth)󠁿

###  󠀁[The real driving force behind development isn’t money, it’s trust](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/business/327267-the-real-driving-force-behind-development-isnt-money-its-trust)󠁿