March 2025: Thai Exports Reach Three-Year High, but Annual Outlook Clouded by Trade War Uncertainty

In March 2025, Thai merchandise exports surged 17.8% year-on-year to USD 29.55 billion, driven by electronics and gold, despite challenges from U.S. tariffs and global economic uncertainties.

Key Points

• Thai exports grew significantly in March 2025, with a 17.8% year-over-year increase, reaching USD 29.5 billion—the highest growth in three years.
• The growth was driven by accelerated exports ahead of new U.S. tariffs, a strong upcycle in electronics, and surging gold exports.
• Exports to the U.S. surged by 34.3%, led by electronics, while exports to China grew 22.2%, supported by rubber and aluminum products.
• Gold exports skyrocketed by 269.5%, particularly to Switzerland, Cambodia, Hong Kong, and the UAE, driven by global demand for safe-haven assets.

Thai Export Growth in March 2025

In March 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports surged by 17.8% year-over-year, reaching USD 29.55 billion—the highest growth rate in three years. This increase outperformed expectations, supported by strong production in electronics and a rush to export before impending U.S. tariffs. Notably, exports to the U.S. soared by 34.3%, with electronic products driving this expansion.

Key Contributors and Challenges

Gold exports remained a significant factor, showing a remarkable 269.5% increase. However, special factors supporting gold exports started to wane, particularly due to India’s revised import policies impacting platinum alloys. Meanwhile, agricultural and agro-industrial exports contracted, signaling challenges despite the overall robust growth in industrial products.

Future Outlook for Exports

Looking ahead, SCB EIC projects a contraction risk of 0.4% for Thai exports in 2025 amid escalating trade tensions and tariffs. The first half of the year may witness growth following favorable conditions, but uncertainty looms as U.S. tariffs could dampen trade. The report underscores the importance of monitoring these developments for the Thai economy’s future.

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