# Thailand’s Q1 GDP Expands by 3.1%, but 2025 Forecast Faces Challenges from Global and Domestic Pressures

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/221318-thailands-q1-gdp-expands-by-3-1-but-2025-forecast-faces-challenges-from-global-and-domestic-pressures
- Published: 2025-05-21T09:39:46+07:00
- Author: J. Allan

Thailand’s economy expanded by 3.1% in the first quarter of 2025, continuing the
positive trend from Q4 2024, which saw a 3.3% rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

## Key takeaways

 * Thailand’s economy grew 3.1% in Q1 2025, showing resilience but signaling softening
   momentum.
 * The NESDC projects modest full-year growth of 1.3%–2.3% amid global and domestic
   headwinds.
 * A six-point strategy targets infrastructure, trade, SMEs, agriculture, and tourism
   to stabilize growth.

The data, released by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)
on May 19, signals underlying resilience in the economy despite a challenging external
environment. However, growth momentum appears to be softening, and projections for
the rest of the year remain modest.

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The NESDC has maintained a cautious forecast for 2025, projecting full-year GDP 
growth in the range of 1.3% to 2.3%, with a central estimate of 1.8%. 

This conservative outlook reflects significant global headwinds, including heightened
trade tensions and the ongoing economic deceleration in China, a key trade partner.
Recent U.S. tariff adjustments have added uncertainty to Thailand’s export performance,
while volatility in emerging markets poses further risks to global trade stability.

Domestically, several structural vulnerabilities continue to weigh on the country’s
economic prospects. High household debt remains a concern, with financial institutions
being urged to closely monitor loan quality to prevent a rise in non-performing 
loans. 

Meanwhile, the agricultural sector faces persistent challenges from unpredictable
weather and climate-related disruptions, threatening income stability for a large
portion of the workforce.

In response to these multifaceted challenges, the NESDC has proposed a six-point
strategy to guide economic management through the remainder of the year. 

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The plan includes accelerating budget disbursement, particularly for infrastructure
investments, to stimulate growth and improve fiscal resilience.

Efforts to overcome trade obstacles are also central to the strategy, with targeted
negotiations aimed at reducing the trade surplus with the U.S., expanding into new
markets, and promoting high-potential exports. 

Strengthening domestic production through enhanced import regulation and support
for affected businesses is another priority.

Support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) features prominently in the
plan, with initiatives focused on revenue growth, capacity building, and debt restructuring.

For the agricultural sector, the government aims to implement contingency plans 
for crop shortfalls, improve water resource management, and promote technology adoption.

Finally, the NESDC is pushing for enhanced tourism infrastructure to attract international
visitors. Measures include improved safety, streamlined immigration procedures, 
and better environmental and transport infrastructure.

Although the 2025 outlook remains subdued, the NESDC believes that effective execution
of these measures could help stabilize the economy and pave the way for stronger
growth in the coming years.