Thai exports surged by 11% year-on-year in July 2025, propelled by strong demand from the US and electronics sectors, despite ongoing tariff hurdles. Meanwhile, imports decelerated. However, exports may encounter contraction risks in Q4 and a potential decline in 2026 due to escalating tariff and geopolitical challenges.
- Export Growth Slowdown: Thai merchandise exports in July 2025 grew by 11% year-on-year (YOY) to USD 28,580.7 million, a slowdown from 15.5% in June.
- Key Export Drivers: Growth was supported by shipments to the United States (31.4% YOY expansion) and electronic product exports to various markets, particularly computers, equipment, and parts, and integrated circuits.
- Agricultural Sector Strength: Agricultural exports saw a considerable expansion of 21.5%, driven by fruit exports to China.
Thai Export Growth Moderates but Remains Strong
In July 2025, Thai merchandise exports grew by 11% year-on-year to USD 28.58 billion, slowing from 15.5% in June but still surpassing market expectations. Growth was driven by strong shipments to the US and electronic products to various markets. Exports to the US surged by 31.4% due to front-loading before new tariffs, especially in electronics like computers and integrated circuit boards. Agricultural exports also rose significantly by 21.5%, with fresh fruit exports to China climbing 123%. Meanwhile, import growth slowed to 5.1%, with capital goods from China increasing notably, while fuel imports continued to decline.
Impact of US Tariffs and Trade Balance Improvements
On July 31, 2025, the US announced new retaliatory tariffs on 72 countries, effective August 7, but Thailand successfully negotiated a reduction from a threatened 36% to 19%, easing competitiveness concerns. This adjustment aligned Thailand with ASEAN peers and lowered the global average tariff rate, helping to avoid a worst-case global economic scenario. Thailand’s trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 322.1 million in July, defying expectations of a deficit, marking a positive shift amid tariff pressures.
Export Outlook and Risks for 2025-2026
SCB EIC raised Thailand’s 2025 export growth forecast to 3.0%, boosted by eased trade tensions and strong H1 performance. However, export growth is expected to slow in Q3 and contract sharply in Q4 due to fading front-loading effects, higher tariff impacts, and a stronger baht reducing competitiveness. Additional risks include renewed US-China tensions, potential new US tariffs on key electronic goods, and the threat of a 40% transshipment tariff affecting imports-heavy products. Regional conflicts and currency appreciation may also negatively affect exports in 2026, projected to contract by 1.5%.
