# Thai Export growth remained strong in July but showed signs of slowing compared to June

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/242450-thai-export-growth-remained-strong-in-july-but-showed-signs-of-slowing-compared-to-june
- Published: 2025-09-04T12:07:13+07:00
- Author: Chloe Zhou

Thai exports surged by 11% year-on-year in July 2025, propelled by strong demand
from the US and electronics sectors, despite ongoing tariff hurdles. Meanwhile, 
imports decelerated. However, exports may encounter contraction risks in Q4 and 
a potential decline in 2026 due to escalating tariff and geopolitical challenges.

 * **Export Growth Slowdown:** Thai merchandise exports in July 2025 grew by 11%
   year-on-year (YOY) to USD 28,580.7 million, a slowdown from 15.5% in June.
 * **Key Export Drivers:** Growth was supported by shipments to the United States(
   31.4% YOY expansion) and electronic product exports to various markets, particularly
   computers, equipment, and parts, and integrated circuits.
 * **Agricultural Sector Strength:** Agricultural exports saw a considerable expansion
   of 21.5%, driven by fruit exports to China.

## Thai Export Growth Moderates but Remains Strong

In July 2025, Thai merchandise exports grew by 11% year-on-year to USD 28.58 billion,
slowing from 15.5% in June but still surpassing market expectations. Growth was 
driven by strong shipments to the US and electronic products to various markets.
Exports to the US surged by 31.4% due to front-loading before new tariffs, especially
in electronics like computers and integrated circuit boards. Agricultural exports
also rose significantly by 21.5%, with fresh fruit exports to China climbing 123%.
Meanwhile, import growth slowed to 5.1%, with capital goods from China increasing
notably, while fuel imports continued to decline.

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## Impact of US Tariffs and Trade Balance Improvements

On July 31, 2025, the US announced new retaliatory tariffs on 72 countries, effective
August 7, but Thailand successfully negotiated a reduction from a threatened 36%
to 19%, easing competitiveness concerns. This adjustment aligned Thailand with ASEAN
peers and lowered the global average tariff rate, helping to avoid a worst-case 
global economic scenario. Thailand’s trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 322.1
million in July, defying expectations of a deficit, marking a positive shift amid
tariff pressures.

## Export Outlook and Risks for 2025-2026

SCB EIC raised Thailand’s 2025 export growth forecast to 3.0%, boosted by eased 
trade tensions and strong H1 performance. However, export growth is expected to 
slow in Q3 and contract sharply in Q4 due to fading front-loading effects, higher
tariff impacts, and a stronger baht reducing competitiveness. Additional risks include
renewed US-China tensions, potential new US tariffs on key electronic goods, and
the threat of a 40% transshipment tariff affecting imports-heavy products. Regional
conflicts and currency appreciation may also negatively affect exports in 2026, 
projected to contract by 1.5%.

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