Thailand’s economy faces challenges with weak domestic demand and external risks, but high-value sector investments offer growth potential. Coordinated policies and FDI are crucial for long-term transformation.
Economic Overview
As of September 2025, Thailand finds itself at a critical point, contending with immediate economic challenges while embracing structural changes. Though domestic demand has weakened, investments in sectors like electric vehicles and data centers are paving the way for more robust growth. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) underscores that coordinated policy actions and leveraging foreign direct investment (FDI) are crucial for economic transformation.
Growth and Inflation Forecast
According to AMRO’s assessment, Thailand’s growth is expected to slow, with projections of 2.2% for 2025 and 1.9% for 2026. This slowdown is attributed to decreasing exports and continued private sector weakness. However, there is potential for improvement through strategic investments in high-value sectors. Inflation remains low, forecasted at 0.5% for 2025, influenced by supply-side factors.
Policy Considerations
AMRO recommends maintaining supportive macroeconomic policies in the short term to counter domestic demand weaknesses. Monetary policy should remain accommodative, with room for further easing if required. Fiscal policies should target vulnerable groups while fostering economic transformation through reforms in innovation and infrastructure. Harnessing high-quality FDI is vital for enhancing Thailand’s competitiveness and driving inclusive growth. AMRO expresses gratitude to the Thai authorities for their cooperation during the consultation.
Source: Thailand: Safeguarding Growth, Sustaining Transformation – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office
