In September 2025, Thai exports surged 19% YOY to USD 30.97 billion, driven by electronics and gold. Imports also rose 17.2%, mainly from China and Taiwan, returning trade surplus to USD 1.28 billion.
Strong Export Growth in September 2025
In September 2025, Thai merchandise exports surged to USD 30,970.7 million, marking a sharp 19% year-on-year (YOY) increase—the highest in over three years. This growth outpaced earlier forecasts of 3.5% to 7%. Key contributors included electronic products and unwrought gold, with electronics exports to the United States, China, and other countries fueling nearly half of the total expansion. Gold exports soared by 212.6% YOY, driven by strong demand and rising prices, particularly to Switzerland, Singapore, and the US. Exports to the US also showed resilience, growing by 35.3% YOY despite tariffs on some products.
Import Growth and Trade Surplus
Thai imports grew 17.2% YOY in September 2025, driven mainly by increased purchases from China and Taiwan. Imports of vehicles, raw materials, and capital goods rose sharply, reflecting strong industrial demand, especially in electronics components. Imports from China expanded by 38.7%, while Taiwan’s surged by 109.6%, largely due to electronic integrated circuits. Consumer goods imports from China also grew, fueled by competitive pricing amid China’s economic challenges. The trade balance returned to a surplus of USD 1,275.2 million after a previous deficit.
Outlook for 2025 and 2026
Despite robust export performance in early 2025, SCB EIC expects export growth to weaken towards year-end, with full-year growth surpassing earlier forecasts but potentially limited in net benefits due to gold’s disproportionate impact. For 2026, exports are projected to contract by 1.9%, pressured by additional US tariffs, global economic slowdown, and currency appreciation. These challenges align with forecasts from the IMF and WTO, which predict slower global trade growth in 2026. Updated economic forecasts from SCB EIC are anticipated in November 2025.
