# September Exports Hit 42-Month High, Full-Year Forecast Upgraded as Imports Surge

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/256145-september-flash-exports-hit-42-month-high-full-year-forecast-upgraded-as-imports-surge
- Published: 2025-11-17T10:35:00+07:00
- Author: Economic Intelligence Center Siam Commercial Bank

**In September 2025, Thai exports surged 19% YOY to USD 30.97 billion, driven by
electronics and gold. Imports also rose 17.2%, mainly from China and Taiwan, returning
trade surplus to USD 1.28 billion.**

## Strong Export Growth in September 2025

In September 2025, Thai merchandise exports surged to USD 30,970.7 million, marking
a sharp 19% year-on-year (YOY) increase—the highest in over three years. This growth
outpaced earlier forecasts of 3.5% to 7%. Key contributors included electronic products
and unwrought gold, with electronics exports to the United States, China, and other
countries fueling nearly half of the total expansion. Gold exports soared by 212.6%
YOY, driven by strong demand and rising prices, particularly to Switzerland, Singapore,
and the US. Exports to the US also showed resilience, growing by 35.3% YOY despite
tariffs on some products.

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## Import Growth and Trade Surplus

Thai imports grew 17.2% YOY in September 2025, driven mainly by increased purchases
from China and Taiwan. Imports of vehicles, raw materials, and capital goods rose
sharply, reflecting strong industrial demand, especially in electronics components.
Imports from China expanded by 38.7%, while Taiwan’s surged by 109.6%, largely due
to electronic integrated circuits. Consumer goods imports from China also grew, 
fueled by competitive pricing amid China’s economic challenges. The trade balance
returned to a surplus of USD 1,275.2 million after a previous deficit.

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## Outlook for 2025 and 2026

Despite robust export performance in early 2025, SCB EIC expects export growth to
weaken towards year-end, with full-year growth surpassing earlier forecasts but 
potentially limited in net benefits due to gold’s disproportionate impact. For 2026,
exports are projected to contract by 1.9%, pressured by additional US tariffs, global
economic slowdown, and currency appreciation. These challenges align with forecasts
from the IMF and WTO, which predict slower global trade growth in 2026. Updated 
economic forecasts from SCB EIC are anticipated in November 2025.

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