# Thailand’s GDP is projected to grow by a modest 2% this year, according to NESDC estimates

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/259328-thailands-gdp-is-projected-to-grow-by-a-modest-2-this-year-according-to-nesdc-estimates
- Published: 2025-11-19T19:31:01+07:00
- Author: Daniel Lorenzzo

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The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) projects Thailand’s
GDP growth for 2025 at **2%**, following a contraction in the third quarter to **
1.2%**, down from **2.8%** in the second quarter. Private consumption and exports
are key growth drivers, while government investment and public sector consumption
have declined.

For 2026, GDP growth is expected to range between **1.2% and 2.2%**, supported by
private sector activity, government policies, and a recovery in tourism. Export 
growth is forecast to be modest, with tourist arrivals expected to rise to **35 
million** in 2026.

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This 2.0% projection suggests a modest growth rate and is being influenced by several
factors, including:

 * **Slowing Domestic Demand:** Private consumption growth has been steady but is
   facing headwinds from high household debt levels.
 * **Weaker External Demand:** Slower global growth and the impact of **US reciprocal
   tariffs** have been noted as risks to merchandise exports.  
 * **Government Measures:** Continued government spending and stimulus measures (
   like the Digital Wallet program mentioned in earlier forecasts) are expected 
   to provide some support to consumption.  
 * **Tourism Recovery:** The tourism sector is still recovering, although the pace
   of that recovery is a key factor in the overall outlook.

| **Institution** | **GDP Growth Forecast (2025)** | **Key Driving Factors / Risks Cited** | 
| **Bank of Thailand (BOT)** | **2.2%** | Supported by better-than-expected industrial production and exports, alongside continued growth in domestic consumption. Risks are mainly from **US trade policies** and geopolitical tensions. | 
| **International Monetary Fund (IMF)** | **2.1%** | The first half of the year saw an upside surprise due to strong exports, but a slowdown is expected in the second half due to the reversal of “front-loading” of exports, softer US demand, and the impact of **higher tariffs**. | 
| **World Bank** | **1.8% to 2.0%** | The World Bank has published different figures, with a more recent one at **2.0%** but an earlier one at **1.8%**. Cited risks include: persistent political uncertainty, global slowdown, and the impact of trade restrictions. | 
| **KASIKORNBANK (KResearch)** | **1.8%** | Raised from an earlier 1.5% estimate due to a surge in **front-loading shipments** (especially electronics) to the US ahead of anticipated tariff measures. Still faces risks from US tariffs, slowing tourism, and domestic political factors. |