The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) projects Thailand’s GDP growth for 2025 at 2%, following a contraction in the third quarter to 1.2%, down from 2.8% in the second quarter. Private consumption and exports are key growth drivers, while government investment and public sector consumption have declined.
For 2026, GDP growth is expected to range between 1.2% and 2.2%, supported by private sector activity, government policies, and a recovery in tourism. Export growth is forecast to be modest, with tourist arrivals expected to rise to 35 million in 2026.
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This 2.0% projection suggests a modest growth rate and is being influenced by several factors, including:
- Slowing Domestic Demand: Private consumption growth has been steady but is facing headwinds from high household debt levels.
- Weaker External Demand: Slower global growth and the impact of US reciprocal tariffs have been noted as risks to merchandise exports.
- Government Measures: Continued government spending and stimulus measures (like the Digital Wallet program mentioned in earlier forecasts) are expected to provide some support to consumption.
- Tourism Recovery: The tourism sector is still recovering, although the pace of that recovery is a key factor in the overall outlook.
| Institution | GDP Growth Forecast (2025) | Key Driving Factors / Risks Cited |
| Bank of Thailand (BOT) | 2.2% | Supported by better-than-expected industrial production and exports, alongside continued growth in domestic consumption. Risks are mainly from US trade policies and geopolitical tensions. |
| International Monetary Fund (IMF) | 2.1% | The first half of the year saw an upside surprise due to strong exports, but a slowdown is expected in the second half due to the reversal of “front-loading” of exports, softer US demand, and the impact of higher tariffs. |
| World Bank | 1.8% to 2.0% | The World Bank has published different figures, with a more recent one at 2.0% but an earlier one at 1.8%. Cited risks include: persistent political uncertainty, global slowdown, and the impact of trade restrictions. |
| KASIKORNBANK (KResearch) | 1.8% | Raised from an earlier 1.5% estimate due to a surge in front-loading shipments (especially electronics) to the US ahead of anticipated tariff measures. Still faces risks from US tariffs, slowing tourism, and domestic political factors. |
