The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has projected Thailand’s GDP growth at only 2% for 2025, down from 2.8% in Q2 to just 1.2% in Q3. The modest growth is supported by private consumption (2.1%), government investment (2.9%), and a current account surplus, though several sectors showed contraction including public consumption (-3.9%), government investment (-5.3%), and construction (-4%).
The agricultural sector experienced a growth of 1.9%, while the industrial sector saw a contraction of 1.6%. Hospitality and food services recorded a modest expansion of 0.8%, the transport sector grew by 3%, but the construction sector faced a decline of 4%.
For 2026, the NESDC forecasts even slower growth of 1.2-2.2% (median 1.7%), with expectations of recovery driven by increased private sector activity, government policy support, tourism sector recovery, and higher agricultural output.
Export growth is projected at 0.2-1.2% and tourist arrivals are expected to reach 35 million, up from 33 million in 2025. The NESDC also highlights potential risks to the 2026 outlook, including global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related challenges that could impact agricultural production. Efforts to enhance infrastructure, promote digital transformation, and attract foreign investment are expected to play a critical role in sustaining growth momentum. Additionally, the government aims to bolster domestic consumption through targeted fiscal measures, while maintaining a focus on long-term economic resilience and sustainability.
Tourism recovery is expected to be a key driver of Thailand’s modest economic growth in 2026, though projections vary across institutions[1][3][6].
The NESDC forecasts tourist arrivals will increase to 35 million in 2026, up from 33 million in 2025[1][3]. This recovery is cited as one of the main factors supporting the projected GDP growth of 1.2-2.2% (median 1.7%) for 2026[1][3]. The tourism sector is expected to boost related services, hospitality, and downstream industries, which will help offset weaknesses in other economic sectors[3][4].
However, the recovery faces significant headwinds. Some analysts warn that natural disasters, infrastructure limitations, global economic pressures, and geopolitical tensions could push 2025 foreign arrivals down by 7%, potentially affecting momentum into 2026[7]. The Bank of Ayudhya projects a more optimistic scenario with tourism returning to pre-COVID levels of 40 million arrivals in 2025 and reaching 43-45 million by 2026-2027[4], though this appears more bullish than the NESDC’s official forecast.
Overall, while tourism recovery is essential for Thailand’s 2026 economic outlook, its impact will be moderate rather than transformative, contributing to growth but insufficient to overcome broader challenges like US tariffs, global slowdown, and high household debt[3][6].
