# Thailand’s GDP growth forecast downgraded to 2% by NESDC this year

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/260924-thailands-gdp-growth-forecast-downgraded-to-2-by-nesdc-this-year
- Published: 2025-11-28T07:31:00+07:00
- Author: Daniel Lorenzzo

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has projected Thailand’s
GDP growth at only 2% for 2025, down from 2.8% in Q2 to just 1.2% in Q3. The modest
growth is supported by private consumption (2.1%), government investment (2.9%),
and a current account surplus, though several sectors showed contraction including
public consumption (-3.9%), government investment (-5.3%), and construction (-4%).

The agricultural sector experienced a growth of 1.9%, while the industrial sector
saw a contraction of 1.6%. Hospitality and food services recorded a modest expansion
of 0.8%, the transport sector grew by 3%, but the construction sector faced a decline
of 4%.

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For 2026, the NESDC forecasts even slower growth of 1.2-2.2% (median 1.7%), with
expectations of recovery driven by increased private sector activity, government
policy support, tourism sector recovery, and higher agricultural output.

Export growth is projected at 0.2-1.2% and tourist arrivals are expected to reach
35 million, up from 33 million in 2025. The NESDC also highlights potential risks
to the 2026 outlook, including global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions,
and climate-related challenges that could impact agricultural production. Efforts
to enhance infrastructure, promote digital transformation, and attract foreign investment
are expected to play a critical role in sustaining growth momentum. Additionally,
the government aims to bolster domestic consumption through targeted fiscal measures,
while maintaining a focus on long-term economic resilience and sustainability.

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Tourism recovery is expected to be a **key driver** of Thailand’s modest economic
growth in 2026, though projections vary across institutions[1][3][6].

The NESDC forecasts tourist arrivals will increase to **35 million in 2026**, up
from 33 million in 2025[1][3]. This recovery is cited as one of the main factors
supporting the projected GDP growth of 1.2-2.2% (median 1.7%) for 2026[1][3]. The
tourism sector is expected to boost related services, hospitality, and downstream
industries, which will help offset weaknesses in other economic sectors[3][4].

However, the recovery faces **significant headwinds**. Some analysts warn that natural
disasters, infrastructure limitations, global economic pressures, and geopolitical
tensions could push 2025 foreign arrivals down by 7%, potentially affecting momentum
into 2026[7]. The Bank of Ayudhya projects a more optimistic scenario with tourism
returning to pre-COVID levels of 40 million arrivals in 2025 and reaching 43-45 
million by 2026-2027[4], though this appears more bullish than the NESDC’s official
forecast.

Overall, while tourism recovery is essential for Thailand’s 2026 economic outlook,
its impact will be **moderate rather than transformative**, contributing to growth
but insufficient to overcome broader challenges like US tariffs, global slowdown,
and high household debt[3][6].

#### Sources

 * [1 – www.thailand-business-news.com](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/259328-thailands-gdp-is-projected-to-grow-by-a-modest-2-this-year-according-to-nesdc-estimates)
 * [2 – www.worldbank.org](https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview)
 * [3 – www.nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/40058606)
 * [4 – www.krungsri.com](https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/summary-outlook/thailand-industry-outlook-summary-2025-2027)
 * [5 – www.spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/thailands-tourism-sector-drives-economic-recovery-mar23.html)
 * [6 – amro-asia.org](https://amro-asia.org/thailand-safeguarding-growth-sustaining-transformation)
 * [7 – www.nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/tourism/40058557)
 * [8 – www.bot.or.th](https://www.bot.or.th/en/thai-economy.html)