# SCB EIC Monthly Report: Economic Outlook & Q4 2025 Forecast

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/273150-scb-eic-monthly-report-economic-outlook-q4-2025-forecast
- Published: 2025-12-22T09:58:43+07:00
- Author: Economic Intelligence Center Siam Commercial Bank

**Thailand’s 2026 economy will grow just 1.5%, pressured by global slowdown, trade
wars, and domestic weaknesses. Urgent structural reforms, cautious investment, and
government support are vital for recovery amid political, financial, and competitive
challenges.**

## Thailand’s Economic Outlook for 2026

Thailand’s economy is projected to grow just 1.5% in 2026, the slowest pace in over
three decades excluding crisis years, down from 2% in 2025. External pressures like
a global slowdown, escalating trade wars, and stiff foreign competition weigh heavily.
Domestically, fragile households and businesses, limited purchasing power, fiscal
constraints, and political uncertainty challenge growth. Urgent structural reforms
are crucial to boost resilience, raise economic potential, and create new growth
engines.

ADVERTISEMENT

## Key Challenges and Reforms Needed

Trade tensions and tariff impacts may cause Thai exports to shrink by 1.5%, while
tourism growth remains moderate amid regional competition and border issues. Private
consumption will be weak due to slow wage growth and high household debt, with private
investment growing modestly, mainly driven by foreign inflows in high-tech sectors.
Financial conditions remain tight despite expected policy rate cuts. Continued political
uncertainty pressures fiscal policy, necessitating reforms to reduce budget deficits
and sustain credit ratings.

### Related**Posts**

###  󠀁[Thailand Faces a New Economic Test Nearly 30 Years After Its IMF Rescue](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/334123-thailand-faces-a-new-economic-test-nearly-30-years-after-its-imf-rescue)󠁿

###  󠀁[IMF says AI investment is giving Thailand’s technology supply chain a boost](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/333785-imf-says-ai-investment-is-sustaining-global-growth-giving-thailands-technology-supply-chain-a-boost)󠁿

###  󠀁[Singapore Pillar Two Registration: Steps Multinational Groups Should Take](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/329970-singapore-pillar-two-registration-what-multinational-groups-need-to-do)󠁿

###  󠀁[Bank of Thailand Warns Repeated Shocks Are Weakening Thailand’s Economic Resilience](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/332788-bank-of-thailand-warns-repeated-shocks-are-weakening-thailands-economic-resilience)󠁿

## Business Adaptation and Global Growth Outlook

Thai businesses face global supply chain volatility, subdued domestic demand, policy
uncertainty, and intense competition. Sectors embracing innovation, sustainability
trends, and new markets can find opportunities. Globally, economic growth is expected
to slow to 2.5% in 2026, pressured by U.S. tariffs and trade conflicts, though AI-
related investments will provide some momentum. Monetary policies remain accommodative
but constrained, with key risks including trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions,
and climate impacts.

[Source link ](https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/product/9986?rand=55232)