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Thailand’s growth forecast 3.5 to 4.5% for 2011

Sunday’s election should not have a significant impact on the Thai economy, which should grow by at least 3.5% to 4.5% this year

Daniel Lorenzzo

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Thailand’s Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) has maintained the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection at 4.5 per cent for this year, FPO Director-General Naris Chaiyasoot said on Wednesday.

The latest growth projection was unchanged from the previous forecast in March.

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The GDP growth in the second quarter of this year is likely to grow by only 2.5-3.5 per cent.

Mr Naris said GDP growth this year was driven by domestic and overseas demand.

Private consumption will continue to rise by 4.3 per cent due to good income and an improved employment rate as well as expanded exports and services.

The economy is stable and headline inflation is projected to stay at 3.8 per cent due to rising consumer goods and oil prices.

Oil prices are forecast to stay at 101 US dollars per barrel, but the interest rate policy is likely to be raised again by the end of this year to 3.5 per cent, while the Thai baht is projected to stay at 30.50 baht against the US dollar.

via Fiscal Policy Office holds 2011 Thai economic growth forecast at 4.5 per cent.

Regardless of who wins Sunday’s election, the results should not have a significant impact on the Thai economy, which should grow by at least 3.5% to 4.5% this year, according to the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

“The economy grew by 3% in the first half this year, and increased growth is expected in the second half. Although politics is considered a risk, even with government policy shifts it should not have a significant affect on our economy,”

said Wichayayuth Boonchit, a senior economist from the NESDB, at an economic forum held by the Federation of Thai Industries.

Dr Wichayayut remained optimistic about the world economy in the latter half of this year despite the lingering effects of the tsunami and earthquake in Japan.

“Setting aside the negative effects toward the automotive sector, the disaster actually benefits Thailand’s exports in the garment and food industries, where exports in April and May saw a record high of 30%,” he said.

Meanwhile, the European economic crisis will not affect Thailand’s exports as long as it does not spread into countries such as Germany and France, which are Thailand’s main markets.

Positive factors also include the strengthening of the Thai baht, employment growth, liquidity and government measures in lowering living costs.

more here http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/244678/nesdb-keeps-projection

 

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50:50 campaign may not get immediate extension

National News Bureau of Thailand

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BANGKOK (NNT) – The government’s 50:50 co-pay campaign expiring on 31st March may not be getting an immediate campaign extension. The Minister of Finance says campaign evaluation is needed to improve future campaigns.

The Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith today announced the government may not be able to reach a conclusion on the extension of the 50:50 co-pay campaign in time for the current 31st March campaign end date, as evaluations are needed to better improve the campaign.

Originally introduced last year, the 50:50 campaign is a financial aid campaign for people impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, in which the government subsidizes up to half the price of purchases at participating stores, with a daily cap on the subsidy amount of 150 baht, and a 3,500 baht per person subsidy limit over the entire campaign.

The campaign has already been extended once, with the current end date set for 31st March.

The Finance Minister said that payout campaigns for the general public are still valid in this period, allowing time for the 50:50 campaign to be assessed, and to address reports of fraud at some participating stores.

The Fiscal Police Office Director General and the Ministry of Finance Spokesperson Kulaya Tantitemit, said today that a bigger quota could be offered in Phase 3 of the 50:50 campaign beyond the 15 million people enrolled in the first two phases, while existing participants will need to confirm their identity if they want to participate in Phase 3, without the need to fill out the registration form.

Mrs Kulaya said the campaign will still be funded by emergency loan credit allocated for pandemic compensation, which still has about 200 billion baht available as of today.

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