# World Bank raises Thailand’s 2026 growth outlook to 2% but warns AI dependence and climate risks remain

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/332820-world-bank-raises-thailands-2026-growth-outlook-to-2-but-warns-ai-dependence-and-climate-risks-remain
- Published: 2026-10-06T16:44:51+07:00
- Author: Abhishek Prakash

The World Bank has upgraded Thailand’s **2026 growth forecast by 0.7 percentage 
points to 2.0%**, citing stronger exports linked to the global AI boom, but warned
that flooding, a potential severe El Niño and weak domestic adoption of AI could
limit the benefits. The upgrade comes even as Thailand continues to face unusually
heavy flooding, making the interaction between technology-driven exports and climate-
related disruption a central issue for the economy.

### Key points

 * The World Bank now expects Thailand’s **2026 GDP to grow 2.0%**, up 0.7 percentage
   point from its previous forecast.
 * More than **70% of export growth** in Thailand and several regional economies
   is linked to AI-related products.
 * Only **12% of Thai firms had adopted AI** by December 2025, highlighting a major
   productivity gap.

The World Bank says Thailand is benefiting from the same technology cycle lifting
growth across East Asia. AI-related products account for more than 70% of export
growth in Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, making electronics and
technology supply chains an increasingly important source of external demand. The
broader East Asia and Pacific region is now expected to grow **4.5% in 2026**.

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The weakness is that Thailand is much better positioned as a producer of AI-enabling
goods than as an adopter of AI across its domestic economy. The World Bank’s survey
found that only **12% of Thai firms had used AI** by December last year, compared
with 43% in the United States, and only 4% of Thai firms were paying for AI tools.
Around 80% of Thai firms currently report no productivity gains from the technology.

Climate risks provide a second major constraint. The World Bank warned that a severe
El Niño could produce greater agricultural and flooding losses than currently incorporated
in its forecast. The comparison with 2016 is particularly relevant as Thailand enters
a period of heightened flood risk, with agriculture and food production among the
sectors most exposed to extreme weather.

For Thailand, the policy challenge is therefore increasingly two-sided: capture 
more value from the AI-driven export cycle while using AI to raise productivity 
in traditional sectors such as manufacturing, tourism and agriculture. The World
Bank argues that wider adoption will require better digital infrastructure, skills,
financing and a more supportive business environment rather than relying only on
investment in high-tech export industries.

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**Why it matters:** The upgrade to 2% is encouraging, but it does not fundamentally
change Thailand’s low-growth position in Asia. The opportunity is to convert the
current AI export boom into domestic productivity gains; the risk is that climate
shocks and weak AI adoption leave Thailand dependent on a narrow slice of the global
technology cycle.

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