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Thai 2011 GDP projection revised to 1.4%, 2 years lowest

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) Economic and Business Forecasting Center revised Thailand’s 2011 economic growth or gross domestic product (GDP) projection to 1.4 per cent, lowest in two years, said centre director Thanawat Polvichai.

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The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) Economic and Business Forecasting Center revised Thailand’s 2011 economic growth or gross domestic product (GDP) projection to 1.4 per cent, lowest in two years, said centre director Thanawat Polvichai.

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The earlier 2011 GDP growth forecast was 3.6 per cent but GDP in the fourth quarter of 2011 has been affected by the flood crisis which slashed about Bt350 billion from the economy. GDP in the fourth quarter is likely to shrink 3.7 per cent, particularly the industrial sector, possibly contracting 10.4 per cent.

Output suspension has impacted exports in the fourth quarter which are likely to shrink 5.5 per cent, with the greatest impact on the auto industry while consumption is forecast to contract two per cent and consumer confidence to drop substantially to the lowest in ten years.

Regarding the economy in 2012, GDP growth is projected to rise 4.7 per cent from the earlier projected 4.3 per cent due to the Bt500 billion budget to be used for post-flood rehabilitation.

The government’s deficit budget and loan offer by commercial banks will stimulate the Thai economy next year to grow more than this year.

GDP in the second half of 2012 will grow 5-7 per cent, better than the 3-4 per cent growth expected in the first half of the year, provided that major export manufacturers will resume production in Feb-March 2012.

Moreover, exports will resume in the second quarter next year, the government’s daily minimum wage rise to 300 baht and the rice mortgage scheme will support higher purchasing power for consumers.

Source : MCOT News

Economics

More than half of Thailand’s household debt is good debt says Finance Ministry

The COVID-19 situation caused the economy to contract in 2020, raising the level of household debt against gross domestic product (GDP) to 86.6 percent in the third quarter of last year.

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BANGKOK (NNT) – Although Thailand’s household debt has increased due to the COVID-19 crisis, household debt in many countries has also risen.

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Ecommerce

Disrupted by Covid-19, will South-east Asia’s super apps join forces?

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Disrupted by Covid-19, will South-east Asia's super apps join forces?
– Super apps explore inorganic growth options
– Gojek in talks with e-commerce company Tokopedia over $18bn merger
– Grab reported to be preparing for a public listing in the US
– Food delivery and financial services increasingly important segments

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After a year of external expansion and internal reorganisation due to Covid-19, South-east Asia’s super apps appear to be looking towards mergers and public listings as a strategy for future development.

In early January international media reported that Indonesian ride-hailing and payments giant Gojek was in advanced talks about merging with local e-commerce company Tokopedia, in a deal estimated to be worth $18bn.

Any potential merger between the two would be significant for Indonesia. The two local unicorns could create a digital powerhouse, with integrated services ranging from ride-hailing to digital payments, e-commerce and delivery.

A tie-up would also create numerous synergies, such as Gojek’s fleet being able to serve Tokopedia’s online shopping orders. However, there is also some overlap in the digital payments space, where Gojek’s GoPay platform competes with Ovo, which is 35% owned by Tokopedia, although there is speculation that Tokopedia may look to sell its stake in Ovo.

The news was followed by separate reports in late January that Grab, Gojek’s biggest competitor in South-east Asia, had selected investment banks Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan to help work on an initial public offering (IPO) in the US, set to take place in the second half of the year.

The Singapore-headquartered company, which operates ride-hailing, food delivery, e-payment and insurance services in around 400 cities across eight South-east Asian countries, is valued at around $16bn. Its IPO is expected to raise at least $2bn, which would make it the largest overseas share offering by a South-east Asian company.

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Economics

Thailand’s economic outlook for 2021

The government expects inbound tourism to be at around 8 million by the second half of 2021, well below 40 million in 2019

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The Thai economy will grow next year after contracting by almost 10% this year. Next year, the Thai economy is expected to expand 3 to 4% from this year. It will not be until the end of 2022 before the Thai economy returns to its pre-Covid level of 2019.

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