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Thai Exports : is government too optimistic for 2016 ?

The private sector has set export projection this year at 2%, beyond export projection of 5% set by the Commerce Ministry. Meanwhile Thai Military Bank (TMB Bank),’s research centre predicted that Thailand’s exports should grow at 1.8% this year.

Boris Sullivan

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The private sector has set export projection this year at 2%, beyond export projection of 5% set by the Commerce Ministry.

Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) Suphan Mongkolsuthee stated that Thai exports should expand by 2% this year following a 5% contraction last year.

Government too optimistic ?

Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) has also set a forecast at 2% for export growth for exports this year, citing global economic slowdown as main reason.
The 5% export projection set by the government is not easy to achieve, it says.

TNSC deputy chairman Wallop Vittanakorn said the government’s export growth target of 5% would be difficult to achieve due to the slowing global economy.

Instead he was optimistic the Thai export should expand in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam and he urged exporters to target major cities in these countries as their export destinations instead of border towns.

He called on the government to be more serious in helping Thai exporters penetrate new markets.

TMB Bank exports prediction at 1.8%

Meanwhile Thai Military Bank (TMB Bank),’s research centre predicted that Thailand’s exports should grow at 1.8% this year.

He said the slowdown of the Chinese economy of which its expansion was a powerhouse for regional and the country’s export growth in the past several years will not affect the country much.

He believed the effect of Yuan depreciation on the Thai export will not be enormous.

He pointed out that the Thai baht has also weakened, noting that if the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rate even further, it would give the Thai export a boost.

The Thai economy this year will also be driven by the government’s investment and tourism and GDP should grow  between 3-3.5%.

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