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Economics

World Bank raises 2016 oil price forecast to $41 per barrel

Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.

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Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.

The crude oil market rebounded from a low of $25 per barrel in mid-January to $40 per barrel in April following production disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria and a decline in non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production, mainly U.S. shale.

A proposed production freeze by major producers failed to materialize at a meeting in mid-April.

“We expect slightly higher prices for energy commodities over the course of the year as markets rebalance after a period of oversupply,”

said John Baffes, Senior Economist and lead author of the Commodities Markets Outlook.

“Still, energy prices could fall further if OPEC increases production significantly and non-OPEC production does not fall as fast as expected.”

All main commodity indexes tracked by the World Bank are expected to decline in 2016 from the year before due to persistently elevated supplies, and in the case of industrial commodities – which include energy, metals, and agricultural raw materials — weak growth prospects in emerging market and developing economies.

Energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal, are due to fall 19.3 percent in 2016 from the previous year, a more gradual drop than the 24.7 percent slide forecast in January. Non-energy commodities, such as metals and minerals, agriculture, and fertilizers, are due to decline 5.1 percent this year, a downward revision from the 3.7 percent drop forecast in January. Read more.

Economics

Thai Government Plans to Increase 2022 Investment Budget by 90 Billion baht ($2.84 bln)

According to the 2022 fiscal budget bill, which has public spending set at 3.1 trillion baht, accounting for 17.9% of GDP, the government would need to borrow 700 billion baht to offset the deficit.

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BANGKOK (NNT) – The Budget Bureau notes that the Thai government plans to increase its investment budget by 90 billion baht in the fiscal year 2022, in compliance with a law related to state financial and fiscal discipline.

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Economics

Vaccine shortage could derail Thailand’s economic recovery

As much of the Asia-Pacific region is gearing up for a 2022 reopening and recovery, Thailand is now lagging behind many countries in vaccine procurement and sluggish vaccine campaign threatens the country’s economic recovery.

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As Thailand enters the second week of its mass rollout of locally produced AstraZeneca vaccines, it appears that supplies are falling short of demand from patients.

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