Jaturong Jantarangs, an assistant governor of the Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy group and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) secretary, stated that a result of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU in its Brexit consensus, Thailand’s economic growth for 2016 runs the risk of growing at less than 3.2%.
Growth and inflation Projection
In light of the economic assessment above, the MPC revises the growth projection for 2016 up slightly and keeps its growth projection for 2017 unchanged.
Meanwhile, the risks to the projected growth tilt more downward.
Downside risks include (1) the impact of Brexit, which could hinder the recovery of global economy; (2) financial risk in China; (3) private sector’s limited ability to cope with economic shock; and (4) the effect of the government’s attempt to tackle zero-dollar tour operations on the number of tourists.
Meanwhile, upside risks come from the accelerated public spending, and the impact of stimulating measures on the economy that could be higher than expected. The MPC keeps core inflation projection unchanged for both 2016 and 2017, but revises headline inflation in both 2016 and 2017 down in tandem with the lower oil prices. Risks to inflation forecasts are assessed to be skewed more downward, in line with risks to growth projection
Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) Will Launch Bad Debt Guarantee Program for SMEs
The program will also cover SME loans that have turned into non-performing loans (NPLs), defined as loans overdue by more than 90 days, although these NPLs must not exceed two years of overdue payment.
BANGKOK (NNT) – State-owned Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) is preparing to launch a 20-billion-baht bad debt guarantee program to assist struggling small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) saddled with bad debts.
Can the Subscription Economy Save Financial Services?
Going back to the pre-Covid “normal” is not an option for financial services. Fortunately, the rise of the subscription economy points towards frontiers of untapped growth for the sector.
As the world waits for mass vaccination to revive economic activity, general malaise has overtaken the financial services industry (FSI). And things will probably worsen before they get better: US banks are expected to suffer US$318 billion in net loan losses by the end of 2022, according to Deloitte.
Asia Pacific Banks shrug off commercial property risks for now
APAC commercial property prices were down around 3% on average in 2020, after a 1% rise in 2019. But the coronavirus-induced decline has been modest compared to past downturns, suggesting that the impact on banks’ commercial real estate loans will generally be much smaller this time.
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