The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) forecast the Thai economy will grow by 4.5-5% throughout this year and Krungthai Bank (KTB) has maintained Thailand’s economic growth forecast for this year at 4.5 percent.
BOT Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said that, according to the National Economic and Social Development Board, the Thai economy in the second quarter of 2018 expanded by 4.6%, bringing overall growth for the first half of the year to 4.8%. The figures align with forecasts issued by the central bank.
UTCC’s Center for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF) Director Thanawat Ponvichai said the Thai economy throughout this year has shown signs of a good recovery, given better public awareness and better distribution of incomes, with the growth in the first half of 2018 accounting for 4.8% due to the better performing export sector which is likely to achieve 8% growth throughout this year.
Veerathai revealed that the upcoming meeting of the BOT’s Monetary Policy Committee in September will consider revising the 2018 GDP estimate, which was previously forecast in June at 4.4%.
The growth in the first and second quarters was attributed to the recovering tourism sector which helped boost the economic growth in many provinces, while the increased farm product prices brought more incomes to the farmers.
The economic growth for the latter half of 2018 is expected by no less than 4.2%, according to the UTCC, with the likelihood of the growth extending to 4.5-5% if the export sector performs well, the global economy continues to recover, the number of tourists increases, farm product prices increase, and the government speeds up the disbursement of funds for the implementation of its projects.
The CEBF chief said the current flooding does not seriously affect tourism and industrial areas or the national economy as a whole and will not develop into a big risk factor.
He added many factors need to be closely monitored, including the global economic situation, the trade war between the United States and China, the Turkish currency crisis, and the inflated oil prices.
KTB maintains Thai economic growth projection at 4.5%
Krungthai Bank (KTB) has maintained Thailand’s economic growth forecast for this year at 4.5 percent.
The Senior Vice President of KTB, Dr. Phacharaphot Nuntramas, said on Tuesday that the Thai economy is expected to maintain growth momentum in the second half of 2018.
Dr. Phacharaphot said the agricultural sector grew very well in the first six months of this year, thanks to suitable weather conditions, which may be a temporary factor.
He said the non-agricultural economy has continued to expand in the second half of the year, and it is likely to improve from the second quarter due to more construction projects from the public sector.
Thailand’s economic growth expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023
Although the economy would recover next year, the recovery is still substantially below potential level resulting in a large output loss and could affect Thailand’s potential economic growth in the future with the economy expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023.
The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), one of Thailand’s largest commercial banks, said in its latest economic outlook report that the country’s economy may wait until the second semester of 2023 to return to 2019 growth levels.(more…)
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